For more than two weeks, investors from around the world are actively selling the bonds of developing countries amid rising yields on US and dollar treasuries, Bloomberg reports citing Jefferies Hong Kong. Such a massive sell-off of bonds of developing countries is observed for the first time since November 2016. As a result, the net outflow of funds from these assets from April 26 to May 2 was $ 1.2 billion, which is the maximum value for the last 11 weeks. According to the Jefferies Hong Kong survey, over the past week global debt, commodity, stock, and money markets together recorded a net outflow of capital for the first time since the end of March 2018. As already noted above, the decline in demand for debt securities of developing countries occurs against the background of the growth of the dollar and the yields of US bonds.

For Russia, this news is extremely negative, since in essence it means the fast and final drying out of the last currency brook - the Russian Ministry of Finance for a long time managed to raise funds from placement on the foreign market of federal loan bonds (OFZ). Despite tough international sanctions, Russian OFZs (like a number of other emerging-market bonds) have long been a great investment target for speculative investors. The latter actively played on the difference in interest rates in the US and Russia, investing relatively "cheap" US dollars in high-yielding Russian (Brazilian, Turkish) securities.

The main threat to this whole scheme is not sanctions, but a reduction in the difference in interest rates, making a meaningless scheme. In the same that the values ??of rates in the US and emerging markets will be gradually compared, no one doubts. As another signal to this was perceived and the last decision of the US Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged, which indirectly indicates that next time they will be raised. Understanding this and served as one of the main arguments in favor of getting rid of bonds of developing countries, including Russian OFZ. Making decisions, investors do not even take into account the situation with "Rusal", Deripaska, Vekselberg and others. The main incentive for withdrawing money from this market for them is the ratio of profitability and risk, which has undergone significant changes lately. Where and in what assets do investors' money run away from Russia and other countries? Of course, in the US. The expected increase in the rate of the Fed will lead to the fact that in the US it will invest money in government bonds as profitable as in developing countries, but at the same time, the risk of such investments will be an order of magnitude lower. Investors are not stopped even by the forecasts of the possible development of a recession in the real sector in the US. At the same time, none of them is afraid of the disappearance of the US federal treasury. For this reason, to keep money in US government bonds, with other things being equal, becomes particularly advantageous. It is worth noting that recently the topic of external debt, and, first of all, all the same OFZs turned into the real Achilles heel of the Russian economy.

And if the alignment of interest rates will mean the final drying out of the currency brook in the bins of the RF Ministry of Finance, the new sanctions can lead to the fact that money from them will flow in the opposite direction, that is, to the West. Recall, last fall, the US Congress adopted a deferred decision to limit investment in Russian assets. Hence, the US financial authorities at any time can demand not only to stop the purchase, but also to sell all their Russian bonds. This will be the heaviest blow to the Russian budget and financial system of the country, since about $ 35 billion will be pulled out of it in a short time.