The US Ministry of Finance is ready to soften the terms of sanctions against "Rusal". This was announced on Monday, April 23 Office of Control of Foreign Assets Office (OFAC), responsible for economic sanctions against Russian companies.
Moreover, it is possible that they can be completely canceled. In confirmation of its good intentions, OFAC changed the conditions of the restrictions already imposed. So, according to the new general license No. 14, the terms for conducting and completing transactions with a Russian company for legal entities in the US are extended by six months. Initially, in accordance with the decision of the US Ministry of Finance, US companies had to break all business arrangements with "Rusal" until June 5. Now the operations with the Russian aluminum giant are possible up to October 23. This concerns deals on the completion of previously concluded agreements with Rusal. Moreover, for companies that do not fall under American jurisdiction for such operations, secondary sanctions will not be imposed. On this attraction of unheard of compassion for the Russian aluminum company does not end. Cherry on this huge cake of American mercy is the assertion that sanctions against "Rusal" can be removed at all. Then the fun begins. According to OFAC, restrictions can be lifted if Deripaska is deprived of control over the company or voluntarily refuses it. An additional condition for the lifting of sanctions is the "absence of other unfavorable information" about the company and confirmation of all the facts specified in Rusal's petition for lifting sanctions. Recall, after the decision of the US Ministry of Finance, the company immediately applied for an exception from the black list (SDN list), in which it was introduced by the Americans. As the head of the US Treasury, Stephen Mnuchin, explaining this unexpected turn, the US government does not aim to beat Deripaska's simple aluminum workers, who are completely dependent on their employer. The reaction of the markets to the statements of the US Treasury was immediate:.
by the middle of Monday afternoon, Rusal shares on the Moscow Stock Exchange jumped by more than 13%, and aluminum prices on the London Stock Exchange fell by 8.3%. What happened during these days, and why did the American side change its views so sharply on Rusal, Deripaska and the entire sanctions policy towards Russia? Most likely, such a decision is dictated by at least two reasons. First, during these few days in the United States, the negative market consequences of their actions. A sharp rise in aluminum prices is unlikely to be part of the plans of the US government, even if one assumes that the imposition of sanctions was not without "consultations" with US rivals "Rusal". Secondly, the demonstrative and "targeted" punishment of oligarch Oleg Deripaska, allegedly close to the Russian authorities, will have an immeasurably greater political effect than the "carpet cleanup" of the Russian aluminum industry and the collapse of the world aluminum market. There is also a third aspect, which should also be mentioned. It can not be ruled out that since the introduction of the "aluminum" sanctions between the US and Russia, some negotiations have started. Moreover, it can not be ruled out that on them the parties managed to come to some kind of compromise. Indirect confirmation of this was the transfer to mid-May of consideration of the law on counter-sentences in the Russian State Duma. It's not a secret for anyone that in cases of "emergency necessity" the deputies demonstrate miracles of efficiency, taking the most important laws in a short time. Immediately, they were explicitly asked to "hold the reins".
What can the proposed compromise be based on?.
During the discussion in Russia of the question of what to do with "Rusal", more than once there have been proposals for division, depersonalization or even nationalization of the company. According to representatives of the Russian side, it was clear that in order to minimize the consequences of what had happened, they were basically ready to sacrifice Deripaska as an all-Russian aluminum tycoon.
There was no happiness, but the misfortune helped - the recent actions of the US Ministry of Finance give the Russian side a rare opportunity to resolve the situation with the least losses for everyone, including myself, Deripaska, Americans and even the workers of "Rusal".
The collapsed prices for Rusal shares and the huge financial losses of Deripaska himself are a good way to nationalize his company, or divide it into parts and then transfer them to nominal ownership. Thus, Russia, in fact, exactly fulfills the OFAC requirement - to remove Deripaska from "Rusal". In this situation, all are left to gain: the state takes control over the aluminum industry cheaply; Deripaska avoids bankruptcy (although he receives a "wolf ticket" in the US); America remains with the same volume of supplies of inexpensive aluminum and a feeling of deep satisfaction from the "victory over evil", and the workers of "Rusal" - with work and wages.