The passions did not manage to recover after the collapse of the domestic currency, which followed the introduction of tough sanctions against Rusal, as the RF Ministry of Finance rolled up another execution. After letting the ruble to calm for no more than six days, the department again relied on buying up the US dollar. After the suspension of operations due to the collapse last week, the volume of buying up American currency by the Ministry of Finance grew by more than 1.5 times compared to the original schedules. Instead of the planned 11.5 billion rubles. on the day, working on behalf of the Ministry of Finance of the Central Bank, spent 17.5 billion rubles on the purchase of currency. , which is a record since 2016. As before, leaning on the currency, the RF Ministry of Finance makes it clear that it does not intend to abandon its plans to purchase it for 240 billion rubles. per month. According to the head of the analytical department of Loko-Invest Kirill Tremasov, the daily volume of purchases at level 17. 5 billion. just corresponds to the fact that until May 8 to get those volumes that were not purchased in the period from 9 to 16 April inclusive. What can this insuperable stubbornness mean for the ruble exchange rate and its future? Most likely, only that the possibility of its return to "dorusalov" values ??can no longer be a question of. "It is clear that the increased volumes of currency purchases create serious pressure on the ruble, when the seasonal reduction in the surplus on the current account is already beginning," Kirill Tremasov explained.. - This time the situation is further aggravated by a decrease in aluminum exports. That's why we see such a weak ruble this week with such high oil and optimism in the stock markets. I think he will remain like this.

Below 60 dollars, in my opinion, can go only if oil rushes to $ 80 per barrel. With oil in the range of 70 - 75 dollars per barrel, the US currency will be traded, most likely, at levels of 60 - 62 rubles per dollar ". Will the policy of the Ministry of Finance on aggressive currency buying lead to a new collapse of the ruble - a separate issue. Assuming that the United States and the EU in the foreseeable future will not follow the next sanctions, like those that brought down Rusal, and even more so with respect to debt, the ruble can avoid a new collapse. Its main ally will remain high oil prices. "Oil allows the Ministry of Finance to act without fear of collapse of the ruble," analyst of FC Kalita-finance Dmitry Golubovsky. - Brent came close to 75, and with such a conjuncture ruble, even against the backdrop of the aggressiveness of the Ministry of Finance will not collapse ". However, according to the expert, all these are very fragile grounds and affirmatively state that below the present values ??the ruble will not go, there is no sense. On the contrary, no one canceled the new strategic trend, which implies the end of the weak dollar period and the early start of its strengthening on all fronts. "Regarding the return to the old values, if we mean the levels in the region of 56, this is unlikely in connection with the change in the market pattern," said Golubovsky. - The bullish momentum, which ended at 65 rubles per dollar, broke the ruble appreciation trend. So, on the agenda now, devaluation and attempts to strengthen the ruble will be used by speculators only for its sale ". However, the government is trying not to panic about the possibility of further depreciation of the ruble. According to the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, a weak ruble is for the benefit of industry and allows increasing investments in new technologies. In part, the minister is right. A weak ruble contributes to the growth of incomes of enterprises connected with the export of their products.

But, unfortunately, the main export nomenclature of Russian companies are commodities, which means that the devaluation of the ruble is mainly for the benefit of raw materials. In turn, the recent example of "Rusal" showed how fragile this advantage could be. As for the industries operating on the domestic market, for them the weak ruble is like death. By importing equipment, components and technologies at an ever-growing ruble price, they can not proportionally increase the selling prices of their own products. Their offer is limited by effective demand, which is steadily declining. With all the ensuing consequences.