The ruble will challenge the dollar

18 April 2018, 11:55 | Economy
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The Russian currency continues to remain in an extremely unstable position. The danger in the form of another tough package of US sanctions temporarily passed, but the ruble is still heavily dependent on geopolitical news and investor sentiment. Its main task for the coming days is to calm down and not react to the negative external background, as Russians do, which generally are calm about currency fluctuations. At yesterday's session, the ruble lost a little in price, but this weakening of positions was not critical. As a result of the trading day at the Moscow Stock Exchange, the dollar's rate rose by 39 cents, to 61.56 rubles, the euro - by 41 kopecks, to 76.13 rubles. Such a daily fluctuation is customary for the last year.

This may mean that the panic of speculators is gradually coming to naught. In the formation of the ruble rate, purely economic factors begin to return to the fore. Already today, on April 18, the national currency may strengthen in connection with the onset of the tax period. Exporters need to pay off the state, and therefore they will buy rubles in large quantities. Consequently, the "wooden" will rise in price. The ruble aspires to find a course balance. And in this he helps expensive oil. Because of the shocks last week, the ruble almost did not notice this circumstance, but now this factor should take its. Plus, in favor of strengthening the ruble, and the expected correction in the foreign exchange market, which always occurs after large jumps in one direction or another,. However, do not forget about the risks. First, after the ruble lost 10% of the value in two days, the Bank of Russia refused to further reduce the base rate. This will lead to a decrease in demand for Russian government bonds, the sale of which strengthens the ruble and fills the treasury. Secondly, the likelihood of imposing new sanctions remains.

Restrictions can be very painful for our country, especially if the Russian Federation is cut off from the international SWIFT system, and Americans are banned from investing in federal loan bonds. Some clarity with the further prospects of the ruble after the reduction of tension around Syria and the "case of Skripal". "Balance, of course, is possible. But there is unlikely to be one equilibrium point, and the volatility of the ruble will definitely be increased. And when this balance comes, while it is impossible to understand. Exactly when it becomes clear that the attitude of the West towards Russia goes towards de-escalation of the conflicts that have arisen, "believes Sergei Suverov, head of the analytical department of BC" Sberezhenie ". It is noteworthy that in a critical situation, the Russians showed iron restraint. Accustomed to any turns of fate, they did not rush into exchangers to take rubles, when the national currency began to rapidly lose value.

This they saved her from an avalanche-like depreciation. According to a survey conducted by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM), most residents of the country have not experienced any emotions on the foreign exchange market. About 60% of respondents said that the situation does not bother them, and only 36% confessed that they are experiencing anxiety. "Two-thirds of those polled (66%) are not going to take any action in the event of a further rise in the price of the American currency," RT.




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