For the Russian currency has a dizzying week. Under the influence of a new package of US sanctions and alarming news from Syria, the ruble first lost 10% of its value to the dollar and euro in two days, and in the next two days it played half the losses. Hardly a new catastrophic collapse will take place with the ruble, but its stability is still strongly tied to the situation around Syria. As a result of yesterday's trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the dollar fell in price by 60 kopecks, to 61.99 rubles. The euro sank by 1.04 rubles, to 76.42 rubles. On Friday, April 13, the positive trend persisted. As of 10:29 Moscow time, the dollar lost another 57 cents in price, dropping to 61.41 rubles. The euro fell by 66 cents, to 75.75 rubles. The fluctuations of the ruble rate of the last days depend not on the fundamental indicators of the Russian economy, but on the emotional reaction of investors to the events taking place. One of the main factors of influence were statements by US President Donald Trump through Twitter. On Monday, he accused Damascus of using chemical weapons, threatening to strike a missile attack on Syria, and urged Russia to be ready to launch new and "smart" American missiles. The market began to panic, the ruble collapsed. On Thursday, the head of the White House said that the final decision on the military operation in Syria has not yet been taken, and the Russian currency immediately rose from the ashes. An additional "safety cushion" for the ruble has been rising oil prices. They insured the Russian currency, did not allow it to collapse even more, and helped to recover quickly. On Wednesday, April 11, the price of black gold reached a three-year high: Brent crude oil traded above $ 73 a barrel for the first time since December 2, 2014. "Trump writes posts on Twitter, because he believes this is a reliable way to avoid speculation in the media. In fact, from his tweets, there is even more speculation. The Russian currency is sensitive to the Syrian issue and will remain under pressure for several more days, until the situation is resolved, "- assumes the analyst of Alpari company Vladislav Antonov. The further the influence of emotional factors weaken, the more the usual parameters will come to the fore, which usually determine the ruble quotations: the cost of oil, the demand for Russian debt securities, the dynamics of the dollar, the currency interventions of the Ministry of Finance. In the coming days, the ruble rate is unlikely to return to the indicators of the past week, which stayed about the same level for more than a year. Most likely, it stabilizes within the limits of 61-65 rubles for $ 1 and 75-80 rubles for 1 euro. If the United States still dares to launch a missile attack on Syria, then the situation will get out of control, and the ruble can expect a new series of falls. Finally, the situation with the ruble will be clear when the Central Bank decides on a key rate: will it be reduced or not, says Oleg Shibanov, a professor of finance at the New Economic School.

Investment analyst Global FX Vladimir Rozhankovsky believes that its planned downgrade in the current high volatility would be inappropriate. Ivan Rodionov, a professor at the department of economics and finance at NIU HSE, believes that the Russian government can benefit from the fall of the ruble if it sells at least part of the foreign currency purchased for the past months to the amount of 500 billion rubles. The resulting surplus can be used to fulfill social obligations.