It's still early to buy up the currency

10 April 2018, 11:46 | Economy
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After the catastrophic collapse of the ruble, which happened the day before, today in the foreign exchange market there must come a lull. As part of the correction, the Russian currency may play a little yesterday's decline. The situation remains tense, but the further depreciation of the "wooden" is unlikely to occur. At the auctions on April 9 the ruble rate of the dollar increased by 2.48 rubles, to 60.66 rubles. The euro rose in price by 3.32 rubles, to 74.7 rubles.

Foreign currencies several times updated the highs of recent months in relation to the ruble. Thus, the dollar rate exceeded the mark of 60 rubles for the first time since November last year. The main reason that the ruble cowered from the positions on which it was held for many months, were new sanctions against Washington to Moscow. Because of them there was a collapse of the domestic stock market, the cost of many Russian companies fell by 20-30% in just one day. Stocks predictably pulled for themselves to the bottom and the ruble. Large holders began to frantically get rid of the Russian currency - the volume of transactions tripled the usual daily value. The sanctioning attack, which was followed by the exchange of verbal attacks on the chemical attack in Syria, created such a negative background that investors simply did not notice the good news. And they consist in the fact that oil prices increased by 2%. The Russian companies and the authorities of the country helped:.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev promised that companies that are under sanctions will be supported. After that, the shares stopped cheaper, and some even rose slightly. It is important that the state thereby supports not the oligarchs whose names appear in the "Kremlin report" of Washington, but the people working at their enterprises. Opinions about how the events will develop further divided. Some analysts point out that the weakening of the ruble and depreciation of shares have no macroeconomic basis. All this is just an emotional reaction to geopolitical news. Quite quickly, this reaction should come to naught, after which the market will find a new point of equilibrium. Sale of rubles and currency may be replaced by cautious purchases in the coming days. If no further sanctions are followed, the ruble's exchange rate may strengthen at current oil prices. "We do not think that we are expecting a larger change in the exchange rate. With an oil price of $ 55 per barrel, the dollar will cost 59 rubles, "said Oleg Kuzmin, vice president of Renaissance Capital.. Other specialists make much more cautious forecasts. "The US sanctions, as well as the growing tension around Syria, will keep pressure on the currency and stock markets of Russia in the coming days," believes Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov. According to the expert, the ruble will continue to weaken, but this will happen fairly smoothly. By mid-May, the US currency can overcome the mark of 62.5 rubles, and by mid-June - 64.5 rubles. Euro already by May holidays can grow to 80 rubles.

Given the instability of the foreign policy environment and the emotional underpinning of exchange rate fluctuations, it is hardly necessary to immediately transfer rubles into foreign currency. While the weakening of the ruble is not caused by macroeconomic indicators, we can confidently say that such operations will not bring benefits. If you now buy dollars and euros, and the pendulum will also swing impulsively in the opposite direction, the person will not receive anything other than losses.




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