And with all the ensuing consequences for everything that is not directly related to finance. As well as the financial markets of other developing countries. Such forecasts were made by experts of Deutsche Bank in the next analytical review. In their opinion, these countries, including Russia, are held hostage by speculative capital in the face of investment funds that have flooded their financial markets throughout the last time. The price of the issue is about $ 743 billion - this is how much foreign investors have invested in national currencies and bonds of developing countries. Only in the past four years, funds poured into the 17 emerging markets from Russia to Indonesia about $ 260 billion of investment. All investments were built according to the already well-known principle of "kerry trade" in Russia, when investors borrowing cheaply in dollars, placed this money in currencies and bonds of developing countries at higher interest rates. Last year it allowed them to get a madness by Western standards of profitability of operations at 13% per annum. Even at the beginning of this year, when the American stock market experienced a collapse, thanks to the "kerry trade" they managed to get a yield of 4.3% per annum. Dramatically growing, according to Deutsche Bank, the risks are connected with the expected tightening of the monetary and credit policy of the United States, the inevitability of which seems to have been believed even by the most notorious optimists. It is thanks to this optimism that speculative and still relatively cheap American money continues, albeit not in the same volume, to flow into emerging markets, thereby further increasing the scale of the impending collapse. What threatens this greed for investors, and most importantly - for the developing countries, for several years hosting speculators an attraction of unprecedented generosity? America came to the end of a large financial cycle, characterized by a cheap dollar, which began about ten years ago, during the last global crisis. The concept has changed completely, and the cheap dollar, which for decades stimulated the US economy, no longer fits into the new requirements of the US Federal Reserve. The rate for raising rates and restoring a strong dollar is finally taken and can not be appealed. I must admit that this is not a surprise to anyone who deals with finances. The problem and danger lies in another - the situation changes are rather slow, which has already led many to believe in the falsity of alarming forecasts and finally lose their vigilance. Nevertheless, the danger did not escape at all. The heavy financial machine of the US unfolds slowly enough, but inexorably. The rise in the price of the dollar against most currencies of developing countries will result in a huge vacuum cleaner, which will suck the American currency from emerging markets. Investments in assets of developing countries, including Russian OFZ, will be unprofitable, which will entail a massive withdrawal of funds, including from the Russian market. A sharp increase in the deficit of dollars will lead to an equally sharp increase in its rate. The deficit of dollars will be strengthened and the actions of the Fed on the withdrawal of excess dollar weight from the market. Every month, the Fed takes about $ 30 billion from it and soon enough it will start to reflect on the course. "The jump in the dollar's exchange rate against all currencies is waiting a long time and a long time," explained Vice-President of the Golden Mint House Alexei Vyazovsky. "And this, in fact, can lead to the collapse of the stock markets of developing countries, as well as the drop in quotations of raw materials". According to the expert, if this scenario is implemented, nothing good either the world or Russia expects. "The prices of stocks and bonds will fall, foreigners will run from domestic OFZ and Eurobonds (and they are in the turnover of our state securities from one-third to one-half depending on the issue)," Vyazovsky noted.. - Do not forget about the sanctions. If a sharp increase in the dollar's rate is imposed on a new wave of sanctions, the domestic financial market will fall into a real storm ". In conclusion, for a better understanding of the imminent threat, we give some examples of the consequences of the change in the US financial cycles for the rest of the world.

So, after the beginning of the period of raising the rate of the Federal Reserve in 1979, after a relatively short time, almost all Latin American countries were forced to declare a default. In the mid-1980s, in a state of default, Egypt, Morocco, South Africa and Poland. A similar cycle in the late 1990s resulted in the Asian crisis and Russia's default of 1998. , the next cycle led to a mortgage collapse in the US and the 2008 crisis.

Today the world is at the beginning of a new American financial cycle.