Russia covered the mortgage boom. According to the Central Bank, the volume of issuing such loans in January - February of this year exceeded the indicator for the same period in 2017. almost twice. Thus, in the first two months of this year, they issued 180,700. , which indicates 85% growth in quantitative and 98% in monetary terms (about 291 billion rubles). In 2017 year. , according to the Bank of Russia, the volume of issued mortgage loans in Russia grew by 37.2% - to 2 trillion rubles. According to the deputy chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev, over the past year the weighted average mortgage rate in the Russian Federation decreased by 2 percentage points, and in January 2018. it was already at the level of 9.8%. Iridescent forecasts for the development of mortgages in Russia are built and foreign analysts. According to the forecasts of the international rating agency Moody's, the number of mortgage borrowers in Russia in 2018. will grow by more than one million people. It is noteworthy that in all analytical reviews it is mainly about new loans and new borrowers. Thus, the share of refinancing in issued mortgage loans does not exceed 15%. What accounts for such high mortgage rates in Russia, and do not they carry any risks for borrowers and developers? The first and most understandable reason for the mortgage boom in the continued lowering of the interest rate by the Bank of Russia. Since March 26, the key rate has been reduced to the level of 7.25% per annum, and this decline is not the last. As the head of the Savings Bank, German Gref, said earlier, a reduction in mortgage rates will lead to an explosive growth in the housing loan market, which, according to his forecasts, by 2020. will reach 10 trillion rubles. The effect produced by the lowering of the rate is also that for many hesitants, the cheapening of the mortgage becomes the last argument in favor of making a "fateful decision". Equally important are the lobbying efforts of developers who have recently set a record number of housing, much of which is not very liquid. All this together gives a powerful synergistic effect, expressed in a mortgage boom. What is the danger of the current situation in the field of mortgages, and is there a risk of a recurrence of the mortgage crisis in the US in 2008? The American scenario can be realized only if, under the pressure of developers and their own greed, banks begin to reduce the amount of the mandatory initial payment. Experts agree that the bank can only hope for the absence of problems with the borrower if, at the time of concluding the transaction, the client pays at least 25% of the cost of the acquired housing. Given the high pressure from developers who want to sell as soon as possible hanging square meters, the size of the initial installment may begin to decline. In this case, the repetition of the events of 2008. in the USA it is quite possible. An equally serious risk for borrowers is the inability to forecast their own revenues for an extended period. The builder, by and large, is concerned only with the possibility of selling their apartments and getting full value for them. Whether it will be the money of the buyer himself, or the bank that provided him a loan, he is not interested at all. In the future, the client will have to deal with the bank and the mortgage agency. And the first and second, in the event of problems with payments from the borrower, have every opportunity to claim from him the entire amount, through the implementation of mortgaged housing. Thus, all responsibility is automatically focused on the borrower and no one else. Given the rather ambiguous situation in the country's economy, and even more vague forecasts of its development in the medium term, not all current borrowers who have rushed for cheap mortgage loans will be able to service their commitments in a few years. Such a development of events is almost inevitable, if only because even the most optimistic forecasts predict a situation when economic growth for a long time will not exceed 1.5-2%.

Possible expansion of Western sanctions and strengthening of the country's external isolation can reduce growth rates and to zero level. This, in turn, will mean a reduction in the incomes of Russians in all sectors of the economy, with all the relevant consequences for the mortgage. Thus, the beginning mortgage boom has all chances to improve the situation of developers and partly bankers, but it also threatens to replenish the army of homeless people in a few years.