The Finance Ministry is going to put at risk the assets of the National Welfare Fund. Under the current rules, they can be invested in state sovereign debt and infrastructure projects, and placed on deposits of Vnesheconombank (VEB). But all this gives too poor profitability, and the agency is going to raise it due to investments in stocks, bonds and other securities traded on stock exchanges. According to the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov, the range of investments can be expanded after the liquid assets of the fund reach 7% of GDP - this is the minimum required level of the reserve stock of the country according to the current budget legislation. One of the conditions for any new assets is the ability to sell them quickly if necessary, the minister specified.. For foreign sovereign funds, including the Norwegian one, which was modeled on the Russian NWF, risky investments have long been a normal practice, the minister stressed.. Russia, however, for the introduction of changes may take several more years, writes Bloomberg. At the moment, the liquid assets of the fund are only 3% of GDP. However, this year they can grow up to 5% if the ruble exchange rate and oil prices remain at the current level, which will allow the Ministry of Finance to buy up the currency for 35 billion dollars (about 2 trillion rubles). The NWF began to replenish again last year against the background of relatively high oil prices. Now in the national "kubyshke" gathered, in total, $ 66.4 billion. The amount of risk-free assets is considered comfortable if it allows the country to live at least three years in the conditions of a sharp drop in quotations of black gold (to $ 30 per barrel). For comparison: the size of the same Norwegian welfare fund - $ 1 trillion. Last year, he received permission to raise his stake to 70% of his portfolio in an attempt to increase profitability against a record low interest rates. Other assets of the fund include bonds and real estate. To revise the basket of NWF currencies, which now consists of the dollar, euro and the British pound, the RF Ministry of Finance does not plan. Independent experts support the Office. Now the state reserves are invested in reliable assets with a low yield, primarily in sovereign bonds of leading countries and in gold. For example, US Treasury securities yield up to 2.5-3% per year, recalled the leading analyst of TeleTrade Group Mark Goichman. "With a stable ruble, it barely covers inflation, without giving the state the opportunity to earn on these investments," he said, "Utro". - Paradoxically, Russia attracts money to borrow with its bonds at 6.5 -7.3%, including from the same American investors. That is at times more expensive than she places her own resources. But this is necessary to maintain the reliability of ". Moderate, albeit higher risks, will increase the income from such investments, explained Goihman. They will not affect the state's solvency and the stability of the financial system, since they will exceed the level required for this, he added..
"In principle, this is a very good signal - increasing the flexibility of the Ministry of Finance is very favorable," - said leading analyst AMarkets Artem Deev. According to him, having placed in the stock more than 2/3 of the volume of its sovereign fund, the Norwegians significantly increased its profitability compared to the previous indicators.
"However, it is important to take into account that in recent years, in fact since 2009, global markets have grown, and it was possible to earn money simply by buying diversified market portfolios. Now the situation may change, in any case, there is no guarantee of continuing the same steady growth. Nevertheless, investments in shares allow diversifying sources of income and take part in the development of a number of promising areas. The main thing is that this does not turn into a source of quasi-capital financing for new projects - there are other state institutions for this, "the expert said..
In the current situation, it is generally difficult to say which investments will be less risky for Russia - exchange-traded securities or sovereign bonds of Western governments, said Sergei Pyatenko, director of the Economics and Law School of the FBK consulting company.
"It is not very clear why now it is necessary to consider investments in American Treasuries or, say, bonds of the British government that tomorrow will take and freeze them," he said.. - It was very strange, for example, during the Second World War to consider investments in German securities as reliable. The game is going without rules ".
Formally, of course, there are some rules, but where the guarantee that tomorrow they will be invalid with respect to Russia, in any case, some kind of diversification is needed, the expert adds.. "In this case, it's not about the means to play in the Forex market. It's about investing them not only in government securities, but also in certain issuers that have the appropriate ratings and t. ", He said.
Director of the analytical department of the company Alpari, Alexander Razuvaev, in turn, noted a slight conflict with shares of Russian companies. Now they are undervalued, are cheap and yield very good returns. So from a fundamental point of view, they have to be bought.
But, on the other hand, the goal of a sovereign fund is to get rid of national risks, that is, not to be connected with the situation in the Russian economy. And for this you still need to buy foreign securities. Not necessarily Western. There are many emerging markets, the same China.
"The task of the fund to get rid of the risks of Russia. If the oil falls, and we are all bad, then the stash will not suffer. Therefore, you can buy Russian securities, but not in a very large volume. Russia is dependent only on oil prices. If other markets fail, we will experience it, "the expert concluded..