The conclusion of a new transit contract with Ukraine is inevitable. In this regard, the Russian monopolist Gazprom in 2020 will not be able to do without the Ukrainian gas transmission system for transit to Europe, because by that time the ground infrastructure in the EU will not be ready for Nord Stream 2 gas yet,.

This is published by Kommersant.

By the end of 2019, when the contract for gas transit through Ukraine expires, Gazprom will be able to pump not more than 34 billion cubic meters through Nord Stream 2. from the project 55 billion cubic meters.

In Gascade (owns 50.5% of the project), it was noted that the Eugal gas pipeline, which should become the continuation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline through Germany, will be fully built only by the end of 2020. At the same time, Nord Stream 2 has a design capacity of 55 billion cubic meters. According to Gazprom's repeated statements, it is planned to put into operation by the end of 2019. But by this time only the first of the two Eugal threads will be built. This will make it possible to transport only 9.9 billion cubic meters. from Lubmin, where Nord Stream 2 will land, to East Germany (the Gaspool zone), as well as another 21 billion cubic meters. to the border with the Czech Republic in Doichendorf.

In addition, another 2.7 billion cubic meters. The Russian company will be able to additionally transport in the direction of the Netherlands via the existing Nel gas pipeline.

Thus, Russian Gazprom in 2020 will be able to use no more than 34 billion cubic meters. capacity Nord Stream 2. Completely load the pipe is only possible when entering the second thread Eugal. Gazprom does not comment on this issue yet.

In general, the schedule corresponds to the history of the construction of the first Nord Stream.

The publication writes that in this case the timing for the construction of gas pipelines was tied to the end of the transit contract with Ukraine, which expires on December 31, 2019. However, the inability to fully load Nord Stream 2 in the first year of operation means that Gazprom has no chance of avoiding a new transit agreement with Ukraine that would cover at least 2020.

The author also notes that Gazprom will fully load the available capacities of Nord Stream 2 and will be able to build both threads of the Turkish flow (15.7 billion cu.. ), the company will still need to pump through Ukraine at least 30 billion cubic meters. gas in 2020, while maintaining the current demand for Russian gas in Europe.

In addition, we should expect that the Russian monopolist will not have time to build gas pipelines in the Balkans to supply gas to the EU from the second thread of the Turkish flow. The reason is that the construction of even a small gas main takes at least a year and a half. In addition, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary have not even begun the process of issuing permits. It should be assumed that by early 2020, Gazprom will be able to use the Turkish flow only for Turkey's needs, removing a small part of the transit from the Ukrainian sector - about 16 billion cubic meters. Gazprom will need to pump through Ukraine already 43 billion cubic meters. m in 2020. Otherwise, the company will have to violate long-term contracts with consumers, which can result in fines and losses of billions of dollars.

However, all these estimates of the volume of necessary Ukrainian transit are made on the basis of the current level of demand for Russian gas in Europe, but in the coming years this need may grow. So, if the Dutch government decides in March to cut production at the largest Groningen field in the EU from the current 21.6 billion cubic meters. up to 12 billion cubic meters. the country's needs for imports will increase by 10 billion cubic meters per year. And even if Gazprom takes only half of the vacated market niche, for an increase in exports of 5 billion cubic meters. there will be no other option, except the Ukrainian route.

In addition, Simon Pirani of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies says that Gazprom can ensure the full loading of Nord Stream 2 and two threads of the Turkish flow by 2024, which is likely to allow the company to abandon the Ukrainian route to provide a portfolio of long-term contracts (about 180 billion cubic meters. in year).

He also believes that, given the growing demand for Russian gas, the company "in practice will not be able to completely close the door for Ukrainian transit," even when these pipelines are built.

Gazprom recalled that even earlier he submitted an application to the Appeal Court of Svea County (Sweden), and now he intends to clarify his parameters.

Earlier it was reported that on March 5, the Russian monopolist Gazprom officially sent a notice to Naftogaz of Ukraine on the beginning of the procedure for the termination of contracts for the supply and transit of gas through the Stockholm Arbitration.

Recall that in December 2017, Naftogaz won the Stockholm arbitration against Gazprom under the contract for the supply of gas on virtually all disputable issues. Legal proceedings between the companies began in June 2014.

On February 28, 2018, Naftogaz won the Stockholm Arbitration against Gazprom on most of the contested provisions of the gas transit contract. The Arbitrage satisfied Naftogaz's claims for compensation for gas volumes that were not supplied by Gazprom for transit. The court ordered Gazprom to pay Naftogaz compensation in the amount of $ 4.

6 billion under this provision.

The final settlement between the companies, taking into account netting, is $ 2.6 billion in favor of Naftogaz.

On March 2, Gazprom began an immediate procedure for the termination of contracts with the National Joint Stock Company Naftogaz of Ukraine for the supply and transit of gas in the Stockholm Arbitration.

On March 6, Gazprom named the deadline for filing an appeal against the arbitration award on gas transit.