Thus, the ruble rate closed the past week with the maximum decrease since February 9, having fallen to the level of 57.52 rubles. for the American dollar. According to analysts, this week the fall of the Russian currency may continue. The main reasons for this are fears of a sharp decline in the attractiveness of Russian government bonds for foreign investors. On the one hand, the speculative interest of foreigners to them is declining due to the continued lowering of the rate of the Bank of Russia, and on the other - in anticipation of the purely economic consequences of the diplomatic scandal with Britain. And if the first circumstance has long been incorporated into forecasts and taken into account in prices, the second is of increasing concern to creditors. Confirmation that the Russian debt (OFZ) is the main reason for the deterioration of the ruble was the results of trading last week. On Friday, the value of long-term bonds of Russia on the Moscow stock market fell to the lowest values ??for the month. The yield of ten-year OFZ 26027 jumped to 107.74% of the nominal, OFZ 26218 with maturity in 2031 g.

- to the level of 111.08%. The price index of the bonds of the Russian government - RGBI declined throughout the week, which was not observed since November last year. According to analysts, the sale of OFZ by foreigners is confirmed by the fact that first of all, long-term securities are dumped, where the share of foreign investors reaches 50-70%. By selling Russian bonds, non-residents buy currency, which actually caused the dollar and euro to appreciate, whose rate for the first time since February 14 surpassed the level of 71 rubles. Experts agree that the conflict around accusations against Russia in the use of poisonous substances in the territory of another state will only grow, and the mutual deportation of diplomats will clearly not be limited to. The greatest danger for the Russian Federation is the fact that a number of Western countries expressed support for Britain, including the United States. As for the latter, they have had a number of restrictions on the work of US investors with the Russian external debt since last year in Stand-by mode. Until recently, the American side refrained from any actions in this direction, which was for speculators an unspoken permission to continue operations with Russian OFZ bonds and other debt securities. The Russian-British conflict can serve as a detonator of new sanctions actions, including restrictions on operations with Russian securities. All this becomes no longer imaginary, as before, but a very real threat to the ruble, the course of which is critically tied to the money of foreign speculators invested in RF debt bonds.

These expectations are imposed on the fact that on March 23, at a meeting of the Bank of Russia, the key rate may again be lowered, which will lead to a decrease in the yield of OFZs and, as a consequence, their attractiveness. The imposition of this effect on the growing hysteria associated with the conflict with Britain is becoming a serious reason for the new fall of the ruble. As for specific figures, now some analysts call values ??of 58 - 59 rubles. for the dollar by the middle - end of April.