The ruble will fall in April

15 March 2018, 10:43 | Economy
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In the coming month, the ruble is destined to face an unenviable fate. Since the beginning of the week, the Russian currency has been gradually weakened, and this trend is unlikely to change, experts say.. By the end of this month, "wooden" can break psychological marks to the dollar and the euro. During the yesterday's trading session on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the US and European currency once again rose in price. However, not as much as on Monday and Tuesday. The dollar strengthened by only 10 kopecks, the euro - by 2 kopecks. The auctions closed at the levels of 57.12 rubles for $ 1 and 70.68 rubles for 1 euro. Today, during the day, the ruble could initially grow, thanks to the resumption of rising oil prices and the weakening of the dollar on global trading floors. However, after lunch, the US and European currency will strike back, and the "wooden" will again be in the red. Meanwhile, the weakening will be insignificant. Analyst of Alpari company Vladislav Antonov believes that the dollar will stay for some time about 57 rubles. However, the further into the forest - the stronger will be the external pressure on the "Russian". Recently, the currencies do not exceed the corridors of 55.5-60.5 rubles per dollar and 67-71 rubles per euro. However, very soon these borders may be violated. That is, the dollar will cost more than 61 rubles, and the euro - more than 71 rubles. Already now against the ruble is the speech of the Prime Minister of Great Britain Theresa May in connection with the poisoning of the former British spy Sergei Skripal. Experts explain that the head of the government of the United Kingdom said about the possible freezing of Russian assets, while Russian oligarchs keep money and real estate in London, so the ruble reacted negatively to the speech. In addition, the market was temporarily oversaturated with federal loan bonds. Demand for them declined. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation on the eve of placement of two auctions of securities for 40 billion rubles, while the demand weakened somewhat compared to previous auctions, exceeding the supply by only two times. One of the reasons for the weakening of the ruble will be the lack of stability in the oil market, said deputy director of the analytical department Alpari Anna Kokoreva. Now, black gold costs less than $ 65 per barrel. If the reports of OPEC and the International Energy Agency show that in the US full-fledged drilling rigs, and oil storage facilities are overcrowded, oil may fall very much. In addition, the Ministry of Finance is going to actively buy up foreign currency on the domestic market before April 5. Although the volume of purchases will decrease by 30% compared with the February level, nevertheless 192.5 billion rubles will be spent for these purposes. This will weaken the Russian currency slightly. Do not forget about the likelihood of new economic sanctions against the Russian Federation, as well as the prospects for changing key rates in Russia and the United States.

Because of these two factors, Russian securities may lose attractiveness for buyers, and this will negatively affect the ruble exchange rate. The hope for the ruble to stay within the corridors is not so much. Among the factors that will support the Russian currency at the end of this month - the tax period (exporters will actively buy rubles), a psychological sense of stability after the presidential election and the likelihood that oil will not get cheaper so much.




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