Germany dealt a blow to Russia below the belt

14 March 2018, 08:40 | Economy
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Angela Merkel signed a coalition agreement with the Social Democrats, part of which is the program for a thorough review of the German energy policy, Deutsche Welle. This document is dangerous for Russia, first of all, by the fact that it stages the program of Germany's refusal to use hydrocarbons for energy production. And this despite the fact that Germany is a key consumer of Russia for its pipeline gas, which in 2017. 53.4 billion cubic meters of blue fuel was delivered, which is about 27% of all Russian supplies to the EU. It is worth noting that some direct statements in favor of the fact that Germany should abandon Russian energy supplies, the document does not contain. However, indirectly, he, without a doubt, says exactly about this. The program points to the need to accelerate the development of renewable energy, the early phase-out of hydrocarbon fuel and the diversification of its sources of supply. And its significant part is devoted to alternative sources, which in the next 12 years should double the production of electricity. To some, all this may seem like a fantasy, but in fact today Germany has already advanced more in the direction of alternative energy. Already today, alternative renewable sources provide about 33% of energy consumption. By the year 2030. this indicator should increase to 66%. Than it threatens Russia? The first victim of Merkel's initiatives with comrades will be the Russian coal industry, for which the FRG is the eighth largest export market. For the Russian coal miners, the complete "closing of Germany" seems to be a fait accompli. Until the end of this year, the German government will definitively develop a plan to abandon coal-fired power plants. Some of them will be closed next year, and then all the rest. The second "suicide bomber" is assigned gas generation, which today accounts for about 12% of the energy balance of Germany. In the opinion of the German authorities, this direction should be cut in half by "energy conservation and energy efficiency in all spheres of life". The most alarming signal for Gazprom can be the fact that in the "Merkel program" there are no references to energy cooperation with Russia. And at the same time, and the "Nord Stream - 2".

The main thing, according to the "iron chancellor" in the skirt, is that Germany simply needs to diversify the sources of supply. As a first step, the authors of the report point to the need to start creating an infrastructure for the purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG). For those who understand the current situation in the energy market, this sounds almost like a sentence. In fact, we are talking about the fact that Russia will gradually be deprived of not only a fertile place in the market, but also a significant part of foreign exchange earnings. And the reason for this is not from Germany at all. At the end of last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published the annual report World Energy Outlook 2017. According to the data contained in it, the US will be able to achieve record growth in oil and gas production. This will be possible as a result of the beginning of the next stage of the "shale revolution", caused by the emergence of new technologies for the extraction of oil and gas from shale. It is expected that by 2040 g. The United States will produce 1.06 trillion cubic meters of gas annually, which exceeds last year's level by 40%. The extracted gas will be liquefied and exhibited on the world LNG market, which, according to the IEA experts, by 2025. America will take the first place in the world. "The growth in the production of shale gas will be particularly sharp until 2025," the IEA report says.. - In fact, this growth will be the largest in the history of the world gas market, considering that between 2008 and 2023 the increase in the figure will be 630 billion cubic meters and exceed the growth rates that were observed in the USSR with the increase in gas production from 1974 to 1989 year". The main consumer of American LNG is considered to be the countries of Southeast Asia and China. This is due to the fact that LNG can be transferred across the seas and oceans with the help of tankers, gas carriers, which prevents the classical pipeline. LNG is somewhat more expensive than pipeline gas, but the advantages of its delivery to the consumer, bypassing long pipelines and intractable transit countries, often take precedence. To date, the Americans have managed to establish LNG supplies to Asia, but at the same time they are no less interested in Europe, which Gazprom still (perhaps naively) considers its own patrimony. If you believe the program Merkel, this hope of Russian gas workers is a delusion. In fact, we see that the main consumer of Russian energy resources is going to reduce their consumption. Judging by the fact that Germany is already actively developing alternative energy, as well as Berlin's unwillingness to participate in the "Nord Stream-2", Merkel really looks at the Russian-German energy cooperation without any regrets.



Indeed, in the energy policy format it has voiced, passing through the territory of several countries (often quite troublesome), the pipelines are beginning to look almost anachronistic. Do not forget that progress does not stand still and the technology of extraction, liquefaction and transportation of gas is constantly being improved.

And this means that the difference in the price between Russian natural gas and American LNG will sooner or later approach zero. With all the ensuing consequences, in the form of unceasing extrusion of Russia from the European gas market.




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