Before the weekend, the ruble made a powerful leap that allowed it to strengthen against the dollar and the euro. At Friday's auctions, the Russian currency rose in price by 13 kopecks. to the dollar and 75 kopecks. to the euro. As a result, the cost of $ 1 was 56.66 rubles. , and the price of € 1 stopped at around 69.75 rubles. Growing in the price of the ruble helped rising oil: the cost of Brent blend increased by 2.95% - to $ 65.49 per barrel. By the way, there was a decline in the dollar across the market: it became known that salaries in America are not rising so quickly, which means that the economy is growing very slowly, said Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov. However, the new week is fraught with new threats. The US Treasury Department threatened to introduce new sanctions against our country. This frightened American stock speculators. They began to actively sell ruble assets. As a result, the volume of investments in domestic securities for the week decreased by 4.6% and continues to decline.

This is bad for the stability of the ruble. If sanctions are still introduced, the dollar will overcome the mark of 60 rubles. , and with a bad scenario - will reach 70 rubles. The fact that our country can not avoid a new portion of restrictions, unanimously proclaimed Deputy Secretary of the Treasury of the US Sigal Mandelker and head of the US National Intelligence Daniel Coates. What kind of sanctions they will be, the Americans will not admit yet. Worst of all, if Washington introduces a ban on the purchase of new and turnover of existing federal loan bonds of Russia. The more these securities are purchased by foreign players, the more stable the state treasury is filled and the better the ruble feels. The ban can affect US investors. But the authorities of other countries can, in solidarity, forbid their citizens to buy Russian securities. Now foreigners own about 30% of domestic government bonds. Their large-scale sale will cause a drop in yield.

After it, the bonds will be dragged to the bottom and the ruble, the opinion of the Russian financial experts "Moskovsky Komsomolets". Against the ruble will play and other factors. For example, in late March, the US Federal Reserve is going to raise the key rate, and the Bank of Russia - to lower it. As a result, investors will begin to rapidly transfer their capital to dollars, which will lead to the strengthening of the US currency and the weakening of the Russian. Another step of the ruble may be substituted by the US oil industry. They are going to increase the production of shale oil regardless of the situation on the market.

As a result, black gold can easily depreciate from the current $ 64-66 to $ 50 per barrel. Accordingly, and the ruble immediately dips after the oil. Decreased oil may force the Russian government to return to discussion of the increase in value added tax. If such a decision is made, this will negatively affect the investment climate. Foreigners will begin to take their capital out of the country, which will further undermine the stability of the ruble and the entire Russian economy.