The Ministry of Finance of Russia has tempered its currency appetites. To purchase dollars, euros and pounds sterling in March, the department plans to allocate only 192.5 billion rubles. This is the minimum volume since November last year. Last February, the replenishment of the National Welfare Fund at the expense of oil and gas surplus was spent in one and a half times more - 298.1 billion rubles. The operations will be conducted from March 7 to April 5, 2018. , the daily purchase amount of foreign currency in terms of rubles will be 9.6 billion. According to the Ministry's calculations, for the first month of spring, additional revenues from oil prices above $ 40 per barrel should bring to the treasury 238 billion rubles. However, in its February forecasts, the agency showed excessive optimism, and as a result bought currencies at 45.4 billion rubles. more than it should have been: real revenues from oil and gas revenues turned out to be more modest than expectations. So now the difference will have to be compensated from the March purchases. Reduction of the Ministry of Finance's interventions is a positive news for the ruble, especially against the backdrop of the expected increase in sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, who will require funds for tax payments (in total, about 650 billion rubles). But there is no need to wait for special miracles, analysts warn.. Since the Russian budget is heavily dependent on petrodollars, the government benefits from a relatively weak national currency. And traditionally, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are struggling with its strengthening, increasing the purchase of foreign currency in the market. "But if the ruble is weakening naturally, as a result of the outflow of capital from the country, then the need for such a purchase is reduced," recalled the Vice-President of the Golden Mint House Alexei Vyazovsky. Meanwhile, the need for rubles to pay taxes at the end of March will be replaced by the opposite trend. In April, Russian companies will have large-scale payments on loans totaling about $ 6.5 billion, and they will begin to store currency in advance. In addition, the heating season is coming to an end, and the demand for energy. "We have traditionally in the middle - at the end of spring, the balance of payments surplus is declining. That is, if we look historically, in March, April and even in May, in our country, the outflow of capital takes place. And this leads to the fact that the ruble is weakened. This is such a spring aggravation for our budget, which happens periodically. The Ministry of Finance knows about this and is preparing, "the expert explained.. Abnormal colds ensured high demand for all energy sources. But if in the near future the weather in the western hemisphere returns to the climatic norm, the reduction in consumption may also be very noticeable, which will lead to a corresponding drop in oil prices. And then the ruble can generally turn around. "Now he looks quite stable and even tends to strengthen. But if oil develops and goes down quite strongly (and such examples we had in 2014 - 2015, when oil fell in March-April), no matter how the Central Bank did not have to fight it more aggressively, for example, raising the interest rate.

Then, on the contrary, it may be necessary to spend gold and foreign currency reserves to support the ruble, "Vyazovsky noted.. The direct impact on the ruble will not be affected by the Ministry of Finance's reduction in purchases, but the growth in purchases, observed in January-February to October values, did not have a significant impact, said Oleg Safonov, managing director of BCS Ultima.. Of the key factors that affect the dollar, he singled out oil prices, the Fed's policy and the US tax reform. According to the expert, there is a certain balance in the oil market, and going beyond $ 68- $ 70 per barrel in the coming weeks will be extremely difficult. "At the same time, production in the US already almost completely blocks the reduction in supply from OPEC +, which, incidentally, and opportunities for further action is almost gone," - added Safonov. As for the Fed, recently there has been a significant increase in the likelihood of four rate increases instead of the previously expected three in the current year.

This, in particular, is clearly visible on the schedule of yields of ten-year US Treasury bonds. "This moment may further promote new cash injections into the country's bonds, which is usually a pretty strong factor for the growth of the dollar. Tax reform in the US is also likely to continue to contribute to the flow of capital into the country, and, accordingly, support the dollar. According to our estimates, by the end of March, the dollar-ruble pair may be fixed at 58 - 58.5, the euro-pair 71- 71.5, "warned Safonov. The leading analyst of AMarkets Artem Deev also points to the importance of the oil factor, according to which, recently the correlation between the ruble exchange rate and black gold is clearly restored, although it remains relatively low due to the inflow of investors into OFZs (in particular, placement of the latest issues - record volumes, good over-subscription). In general, the risks shift from further strengthening to weakening the ruble, the expert notes..

Oil is increasingly sensitive to negative data from the US on reserves and growth of its own production. Introduces nervousness further tightening of the policy of the US Federal Reserve and the expectation of new sanctions. "And after the election, rhetoric towards Russia from the US may become tougher," Deyev said.. According to his forecasts, a slight pullback of the dollar's rate to 56.5 rubles is likely. , but after that he can rise to 58 rubles. However, nothing critical has happened yet, and analysts do not expect special shocks for the ruble in March.