"Wooden" was truly unsinkable.
After yesterday's depreciation of the domestic currency against the dollar and the euro today, it is actively catching up. At the opening of the Friday session on the Moscow Stock Exchange, the US currency lost 23 kopecks in price, the European currency lost 28 kopecks. Currently, the cost of $ 1 is 56.59 rubles, for 1 euro - 69.39 rubles. It is not excluded that such dynamics will last throughout the day. In this case, the ruble will be able to fully play yesterday's losses, when it sank for 49 cents to the dollar and 91 kopecks against the euro. However, the situation can develop in a different scenario.
After all, the Russian currency is under the influence of the strongest negative factors. The ruble will do its best to keep from falling. But in this situation, not everything depends on him. The main trouble for the Russian currency was the decline in oil prices. This week, black gold gradually subsides. On the eve of its value fell to $ 63.16. But there is nothing to worry about in this. According to the analyst Alpari, Vladislav Antonov, "now the dynamics of oil are most influenced by technical factors". That is, fluctuations in oil prices are a consequence of stock speculation, and not of fundamental factors. Another spoonful of tar in the ruble barrel of honey was the appreciation of the dollar against most of the world's currencies, including the Russian. Against the backdrop of the next decline in the value of American companies (this was because Donald Trump actually unleashed a trade war with Europe and the US, increasing import duties on a number of goods), investors are getting rid of risky assets and are again buying an "American". I'm losing money from this badly. The third possible reason that the ruble will not be able to stay at current levels is the growth of geopolitical risks after yesterday's message of the Russian president to the Federal Assembly. In the speech of Vladimir Putin, it was said that our country has the latest weapons, which we can use in case someone attacks Russia. In the West, these words were perceived as a threat of attack. Therefore, it is possible that players for some time will be wary of buying the Russian currency and domestic government bonds. The Russian economy is still threatened with the imposition of new sanctions by the US. This also puts pressure on the ruble.
On the other hand, in the 20-th of March a meeting of the Bank of Russia will take place, at which a decision may be made to reduce the key rate (this will make the money "cheaper").
This will stir up interest in ruble assets. According to Sergei Suverov, head of the analytical department of the UK Sberezhenie Bank, "the ruble's exchange rate in the first month of spring will be relatively stable, fluctuations in either direction will be maximum within 1-1.5 rubles". Hence, to bury the ruble prematurely. He will fight more and wipe out his nose.