On Wednesday, February 28, the Ministry of Finance of Russia offered to place a maximum volume of federal loan bonds (OFZ) for more than nine months,. We are talking about two issues of debt currency papers with maturity in February 2024. and in May 2034. for the total amount of 50 billion rubles. The bonds were swept off the market like hot pies, and, as before, foreign investors were among the most interested buyers of OFZs. "Foreigners are actively buying Russian national debt, their share is more than 30%," said the head of the analytical department of the UK "BK-Savings" Sergey Suverov,. "Although it was a record volume, but he found his demand - issue number 26223 was placed with excess demand three times, and number 26225 - 2.5 times," - explained "Utra" leading analyst AMarkets Artem Deev. The reasons for such a high interest of investors in Russian debt today are at least two, and both are based on one basic principle - Russian OFZ are an excellent tool for market speculation. First, and above all, this is the interest rate that remains at a sufficiently high level. Most market speculators trite earnings on the difference in rates at home and in Russia. At the same time, they all perfectly understand that such a "plug" will not always be preserved, and the gold stream will soon dry up. "We are doing well with inflation, moreover, in summer we can see deflation. And this means that the Central Bank will more aggressively lower the key rate, "said Alexei Vyazovsky, vice-president of the Golden Mint House. - While our rates are high, foreigners come to us - about a third of the volume of turnover and in OFZ, and a little more in Eurobonds. That is, it turns out that as long as the stakes are high, you have time to jump into the last car - take as many as possible ". Secondly, the original starting whistle was the decision of the rating agency S & P Global Ratings, which recently upgraded the ratings of the Russian Federation by one step, which allowed Russian loans to withdraw from the "junk" category in foreign currency. It would seem that what is happening is worth rejoicing: foreign investors themselves are carrying the dollars to the RF Ministry of Finance, which will go to replenish reserves, and the ruble adds and adds "in weight". At the same time, in fact everything is not so simple and cloudless. A dollar trickle from the placement of OFZ, which feeds the country after imposing sanctions on it and its economic entities, rattles again, but, as already mentioned, the interest rate difference that feeds it inevitably decreases. Presumably, by the middle of the year this difference may simply not remain. So, its drying out becomes today only a matter of time. How risky is this entire "kitchen" with OFZ for the economy of the country and its national currency? More recently, many experts have expressed fears that it may fall victim to Western sanctions that imply a ban or restrictions on the purchase of Russian debt by foreign investors. Judging by the latest statements coming from the other side of the Atlantic, the introduction of restrictions on it is not yet envisaged.

The only question is how long will this be the "so far" - the improvement of relations between Russia and the West in the short term is clearly not visible. No less disturbing is the reverse side of the "triumphant" decision of S & P, which saved the Russian Federation from the "garbage" rating. The accompanying note to the decision of the rating agency indicates that the growth rate of the Russian economy will remain half the world average in the coming years. The reason for this is sanctions, restrictions on access to modern technologies, an unfavorable business climate and the further nationalization of the economy. According to S & P, Russia's GDP growth rate in 2018. will amount to 1.8% (against 3.4% of the world economy). In the next three years, they will drop to 1.7%.

All this suggests that new incentives for buying Russian debt after equalizing rates for foreign (and domestic) investors simply will not remain. Moreover, the peculiarity of speculative capital is its inconstancy and high mobility. And this means that when the OFZ market becomes completely "boring", investors will inevitably arrange their mass sale. With all the consequences for the economy and the ruble, the striking stability of which owes much to the same speculative capital.