The Russian currency weakened the steel grip on the dollar's throat. As a result, the "green" recovered slightly from the shock and began to recover. Nevertheless, so far the ruble rate remains stable. The whole question is, how much safety is enough for him. The previous two days the ruble rose rapidly. On the eve, February 27, the Russian currency has updated the three-year maximum against the dollar, reaching 55.56 rubles. However, towards evening there was a sharp turn. As a result, the dollar exchange rate calculations "tomorrow" on the Moscow Stock Exchange fell to 56.27 rubles. Euro stopped at around 68.85 rubles, adding 28 kopecks.
Today's morning, the dollar and the euro began with a strengthening. The American currency grew in price by 7 kopecks, the European currency - by 8. However, then they changed their mind and returned to the starting values. By 10:30 Moscow time, currencies traded near yesterday's level: 56.27 rubles for $ 1 and 68.86 rubles for 1 euro.
The ruble keeps afloat thanks to generally stable oil prices and the continuing period of tax payments, during which exporters buy up the national currency in the domestic market to pay off the state. True, this factor is gradually coming to naught. As well as the consequences of raising Russia's credit rating to the investment level, as a result of which the ruble made its impressive leap to a new record.
Analysts warn that with the onset of March the ruble will be left alone with its problems. After all, even oil quotes (the last bulwark of stability) today have slipped down a bit. As a result, in the first half of March, the Russian currency can expect a prolonged fall.
What can lead to depreciation of the ruble? First, the currency intervention of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation: the agency buys dollars in the domestic market, creating an overabundance of rubles, why the rate of the national currency can rush down. Secondly, the dollar is preparing to strike back.
In the last couple of months, the "American" feels not the best way. Now its cost in comparison with major world currencies is at a minimum level for three years. "However, the first speech of the new head of the Fed showed investors that the policy of tightening monetary policy in the country will be continued. Because of this, both the yield of Russian OFZs and the exchange rate of the domestic currency may suffer, "believes analyst of the social network for eToro investors in Russia and the CIS, Mikhail Mashchenko.
According to him, "for the growth of quotations of raw materials and the Russian currency, it is necessary, at least, to observe two conditions: the further weakness of the dollar and the continued interest of players to risky assets - this is the formula for the success of the ruble".
Without positive news about rising oil prices or other things useful for the Russian economy, the ruble will gradually decline. However, it is definitely not necessary to panic to citizens. There will not be a sharp collapse, and therefore a jump in prices and devaluation of savings will not happen.