The US Treasury launched the long-promised large-scale program to increase public debt. The market offered bonds for an unprecedented amount: a weekly volume of paper placement is planned at $ 258 billion - this is an absolute record in the history of the country. And, apparently, it will be delivered.
The program started on Tuesday, and by Thursday most bills and notes were sold out, and the US treasury increased by $ 229 billion. But this is only the beginning.
In the first quarter of 2018, the US government is going to borrow $ 441 billion on the market. The last time such a pace, Washington increased its national debt in the crisis of 2008, when money was urgently needed to save the national banking system. However, the total demand for US treasury securities already exceeds this offer - it reached $ 489.5 billion.
Analysts expect that the sale of bonds will continue until the end of the year, as the deficit of the state budget will increase. True, the maintenance of these debts is more expensive - an increased appetite of investors is ensured by a similar yield of securities. For example, for three-month bills it turned out to be the maximum since 2008.
The yield on US Treasury bonds rose rapidly over the past few months, recalls Alexei Vyazovsky, vice-president of the Golden Mint House. And this, incidentally, was one of the reasons for the collapse, which was observed in the stock market in late January - early February.
"The new placements that are now taking place are coming with an increased premium to the market. And, in principle, I think the US Treasury will be located and there will be an influx, including foreign buyers, "- the expert predicts.
Trump's government intended to launch new record borrowings at the end of last year, but the differences between the White House and the Congress on raising the ceiling of the national debt prevented the implementation of these plans.
In fact, the US authorities included a "dollar vacuum cleaner", which will collect a huge amount of national currency from the market.
"To buy debt securities of the US Treasury, you need to buy a dollar first," Vyazovsky explains.. Theoretically, this should lead to an increase in the dollar's rate against other world currencies (especially developing countries). In addition, strengthening the dollar usually means lower prices for commodities traded on world markets in American currency.
This situation is potentially dangerous for oil prices, the fall of which carries with it the ruble rate. But while the Russian currency is holding good and does not react to the actions of the US Treasury.
Negative news for oil from the US is balanced by positive: the latest data on its reserves in the country were not very good, they declined. That is, the supply-demand ratio plays in favor of black gold. Investors conclude that the increase in shale production in the US is not particularly affecting the market, because the demand for energy resources is growing, and therefore, oil retains its positions. And while the price of the Brent benchmark is at $ 65 per barrel, the ruble is also quite stable.
An additional support factor for the Russian currency is domestic demand for rubles, due to the tax period. This month, raw materials exporters should pay a record amount to the budget for the mineral extraction tax - 480 billion rubles. These funds must be transferred before February 26. In another two days, the payment of VAT and profit tax will come to the total amount of about 110 billion.
The need to finance tax liabilities forces exporters to increase foreign exchange sales. According to some estimates, at the beginning of next week, the dollar may drop to 56 rubles.
In March, sales of currency will decrease, but at the same time the Russian Ministry of Finance should moderate appetites. If in February he is going to buy up currencies in the National Welfare Fund by 5.3 billion dollars, then in March - by 4.5 billion.
On the other hand, it is expected that in the first month of spring at the meeting of the US Federal Reserve will once again raise the interest rate. In general, it is predicted that this year the US regulator will raise the rate not three times, but four times because of the acceleration of inflation in the country. And this is also a factor that should theoretically lead to a strengthening of the dollar.
There is a rather paradoxical situation:
according to all parameters, it turns out that the dollar should grow, and while he does not show special haste. It is possible that in the future the US currency will behave unpredictably, some experts believe. A number of analysts believe that the general trend for a weakening dollar this year will continue.
But it is still too early to draw conclusions. Let's see how the situation with the placement of US Treasury securities will develop, whether their yields will continue to grow and, consequently, the increase in demand from foreign investors.