Russia will remain the largest exporter of oil and gas for at least 20 years. Until 2040 g. Nobody can remove our country from the top step of the pedestal. This is stated in the forecast for the development of world energy, published by BP. The share of Russia in the world energy market will gradually decrease:.
from 10% in 2016. up to 9% in the 2040's. However, this does not prevent the Russian Federation from remaining a leader. If you do not take into account the alternative sources, and focus only on oil and gas, then by 2040. the share of Russian sources will be 14%. The production of primary energy sources in Russia will grow by 20%. The extraction of domestic oil will grow by 2 million barrels per day, up to 13 million barrels per day. This will be the third result in the world after the US and Saudi Arabia. Gas production will increase by 29%, to 72 billion cubic meters. feet per day (second only to the United States). Of these volumes, 9 million barrels of oil and 36 billion cubic meters will be supplied to the foreign market. feet per day. The final superiority of our country will be provided, mainly, by the growing demand for natural gas in Europe. Export will gradually increase.
As a result, the region will become more dependent on Russian fuel supplies. If today Russian gas occupies a little more than a third of the Russian market, then in 20 years with a little this figure will reach 50%. By the year 2040. Russia will annually sell 780 million tons of hydrocarbons abroad. For comparison, the volume of exports from the US will reach 360 million tons per year. At the same time, Americans will remain the world's largest consumer of gas and the second largest consumer of oil (after China). Despite the growth of energy production from alternative sources, natural gas will remain the main fuel in the world fuel and energy balance. Its share will be 50%. At the same time, the share of oil will grow from the current 22% to 26%, and the share of coal will decrease from 13% to 8%. Growth in energy consumption in Russia (+ 6% from 2016 to 2040. ) will be the lowest among the BRICS countries. In India (+ 165%), Brazil (+ 60%) and China (+ 41%), energy consumption will grow much faster. The share of Russia in the world consumption of primary energy resources will decrease from 5% in 2016 to 4% in 2040. BP notes that demand for oil worldwide will grow during most of the forecast period, but stabilizes closer to its end. The entire increase in demand will be for developing economies. At the same time, China and India will provide half of the increase in energy demand until 2040.
At the same time, in China, consumption growth will slow down over the years as the transition to a more sustainable economic development model. Thus, by the beginning of the 2030s.
India will become the fastest growing energy consumption market in the world. Russia in the next year or two will continue to seize the world market. Gazprom Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev recently warned that Russia could increase its share in the gas market of Europe to 40% next year,. At the same time, according to him, the EU countries need to prepare for the future deficit and rising fuel prices.