Currency wars came to naught

20 February 2018, 11:30 | Economy
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The exchange rate of the Russian currency will remain stable in the foreseeable future. It is affected by both positive and negative factors. But all the oscillations have a minimum amplitude. So that Russians can for a while forget about currency wars and calmly prepare for the arrival of spring. On Tuesday, February 20, the Moscow ruble is rising against the main currencies. Strengthening to the dollar was at the opening of 1 kopeck, to the level of 56.45 rubles. The euro fell below 70 rubles, losing at the beginning of the day 15 cents. For a unit of European currency on the exchange give 69.9 rubles. Analysts say that since the beginning of February the ruble managed to slow growth and fall, after which we again move to strengthening. However, all these changes occur within the effective ranges. For the dollar, it is 55.5-61 rubles, for the euro - 66.7-72 rubles. The ruble does not go beyond these limits for several months now. Such stability can boast a little what currency. So far, everything says that in the foreseeable future, currency pairs will not leave for these limits, the "Rossiyskaya Gazeta". At the same time, they have not yet reached the bottom, so in the coming days the ruble is likely to continue strengthening to major currencies, said Anna Kokoreva, deputy director of the analytical department of Alpari. The ruble pushes up rising oil prices. Against the backdrop of positive forecasts by OPEC and the International Energy Agency on global demand for black gold, oil quotes are gradually rising. According to a new forecast, demand this year will increase from 98.51 to 98.6 million barrels per day.

At the same time commercial oil reserves do not grow, a new shale boom does not occur. So, Russia's main export commodity will be in price, which is very good for the Russian economy. Strengthening the ruble is helped by a probable increase in Russia's credit rating, which may happen in the near future. Standard & Poor's February 23 may return to our country the investment level of the rating. In favor of this is the growth of the Russian economy, high oil prices, budget surplus. If this happens, investors will gladly buy Russian assets, that is, the ruble will grow in price. However, the ruble also has risk factors.

"The strengthening of the ruble is also contained by the RF Ministry of Finance ($ 15 bn per day), the beginning of the tax period, as well as the latest statements by the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, who, having received appropriate authority from the US president, threatens to soon introduce new sanctions against Russia," - said the expert of the "International Financial Center" Nikolai Shiryaev. However, these circumstances do not yet have a significant impact on the stability of the ruble.




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