Russia can get a nice gift by February 23 - return to the number of countries of investment category. To do this, it is necessary that at least two global rating agencies from the Big Three give it the appropriate credit rating. One already exists - from Fitch. Now high hopes are placed on S & P. On Friday, both agencies are planning to review the sovereign ratings of the country, and many analysts expect them to increase. Now S & P keeps Russia's long-term foreign currency rating at "BB +", that is, only one step below the investment grade. Prior to the "garbage" category, the creditworthiness of Russia fell in 2015. According to most experts, the main reason was political disagreement with the West against the backdrop of the Ukrainian conflict, which ultimately resulted in a sanction war. A crisis in the fall in oil prices has added fuel to this fire. But since then much has changed. Black gold, encouraged by OPEC's agreement to cut production, has strengthened in positions that are comfortable enough for the Russian budget: it is believed that this year it may again be surplus. The ruble stabilized, and inflation fell to a record low level. And most importantly, the US Treasury made it clear that it is not going to impose sanctions on Russia's sovereign debt, since this will negatively affect the global economy in general and the US financial system, including. "Point sanctions against some Russian enterprises and individuals can still be, but such a global danger has departed," said Vice President of the Golden Mint House Alexei Vyazovsky. On the other hand, S & P analyst Karen Vartapetov noted that there is still "high uncertainty" in this issue, since the US Congress can not be dismissed - it can require real steps to tighten restrictive measures. True, this is not a basic S & P scenario. And not only sanctions can become an obstacle to raising the sovereign rating of Russia. As Vartapetov explained to Bloomberg agency, even in conditions of stable ruble and relatively high oil prices, the country's economy grew much more modestly than last year's expectations (only by 1.5%), which also confuses. But, apparently, this does not worry foreign investors who "vote with their feet" for Russian securities, retorted Vyazovsky. According to him, global rating agencies, in fact, follow the flow of capital. "They, of course, look at the macroeconomic, statistical indicators and other indicators. But if they see that foreign debt is bought by foreigners in bulk, while we have one third of foreigners in turnover in the same OFZ and Eurobonds, this is a very good signal for them, "he explains.. - The world financial system itself decides what country's rating, directing capital flows. If the managers of investment funds, hedge funds buy our debt securities, what can the rating agency do? Only fix the investment rating is actually ". If not in the coming days, then closer to spring, most likely, Russia's minimum investment rating will be appropriated, warned Vyazovsky. The actual fixation of the investment rating, in turn, will open the way for those who can only buy assets of this class. "The rating upgrade is very likely, and even not so important, will the rating raise Fitch. If there is an investment level from S & P, then many large funds will have the opportunity to buy sovereign securities, because they need to see the investment rating of at least two agencies on the investment declaration to buy the asset, "said AMARTET leading analyst Artem Deev. Now Russian shares are traded at a very low level, and from the point of view of the ratio of dividend yield and other indicators that determine interest in the stock market, there can be a very good history of capital inflows, Vyazovsky suggested. According to Societe Generale estimates, if Russia's sovereign rating is raised, the inflow of funds into its debt obligations from funds tracking the main Eurobond indices of emerging markets could exceed $ 2 billion. "Naturally, the political background does not disappear anywhere - we see now even a new wave of forcing sanctions expectations, a new aggravation in Syria, so investors remain and remain cautious, but the operation of big agencies for them is in any case a favorable signal - the relationship between the country and the US and the EU uneasy, but working, "- added Deev. At the same time, he admitted that it is not worthwhile waiting for a special inflow of investments.

The expert drew attention to the fact that Moody's recently raised the ratings of many Russian companies and, together with Fitch, they already had investment levels from two agencies, but there was no special inflow to their securities. "Do not overestimate the effect," the analyst called. For sovereign debt instruments, OFZs and Eurobonds of the Ministry of Finance, in his opinion, the effect will be, but also very smoothed, as they continue to be bought using carry-tdare, even against the background of increasing convergence of rates between the CBR and the US Federal Reserve.