This year, Kiev will collect debts in the domestic and foreign markets by $ 8 billion and another $ 3.5 billion hopes to receive from the IMF. This money will not go to the development of the economy, but to pay off old debts and pay a gas debt to Moscow. The credit loop is dragging on more and more, it could lead to a default already at the beginning of next year. The public debt of Ukraine exceeds $ 76 billion, which is about 85% of GDP. Last year, the debt grew by $ 5 billion, and this year it will require $ 10 billion. To avoid immediate collapse, the authorities of Nezalezhnaya last year entered the foreign borrowing market, placing Eurobonds for $ 3 billion. They will have to be redeemed in 2031-2032. According to Finance Minister Alexander Danilyuk, this decision was forced, it helped delay the default.

However, experts are not sure that the strategy of permanent debt restructuring will bring Ukraine to the good. "Given the continuing emission of debts and the increase in the cost of their servicing, default is almost inevitable," the analyst of Alor Broker Kirill Yakovenko quotes RIA Novosti as saying..

Issue of government bonds gives only a temporary respite. In addition, there are doubts that foreign investors this year will want to buy from the state in the pre-bankrupt state of $ 8 billion. Plus, the US stock market is falling, and in this situation, large players are moving from emerging markets to more reliable instruments.

At Nezalezhnoye low credit ratings (Fitch estimated the solvency of Kiev last fall on the "B-"), which makes it unattractive in the eyes of foreign investors, recalls the professor of the Faculty of Finance and Banking RASHiGS Yuri Yudenkov. The country has a high debt burden, structural weaknesses, a weak banking sector, great geopolitical risks. According to Yudenkov, Kiev should try to directly agree with the IMF and the EBRD on debt restructuring. Otherwise, money can not be seen.

To receive assistance from foreign creditors, Kiev will be able only if a number of conditions are met that may prove disastrous for the economy and cause a severe blow to the citizens' wallets. For example, the IMF actually prohibits the authorities of the country to raise salaries and pensions, and also calls for raising gas tariffs to market levels. Ukrainians have already experienced the heavy burden of the national debt, receiving communal payments with inflated figures. But there is nowhere to go to Kiev: if we do not raise tariffs, the IMF will not issue a new tranche, which will lead to the immediate ruin of the state.

Formally, Ukraine from the end of 2015. is already in a state of default after the country's authorities refused to return Russia a loan of $ 3 billion, taken even under Viktor Yanukovych. The High Court of London recognized the debt to the state and obliged Ukrainians to pay it.

Those filed an appeal, the official decision has not yet been received by the parties, but the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation says that the court in late January confirmed the validity of the earlier verdict.

After Kiev receives a copy of the decision (for the sending of documents is given three months), he will have to pay the amount in full, unless otherwise determined by a court decision. Thus, before the end of April, Ukraine will inevitably face the question of where to take money to pay off the Russian Federation. Take them to Kiev from nowhere. "The state-bankrupt is simply beyond its power," concluded Kirill Yakovenko.