The future of the ruble is disclosed

06 February 2018, 12:30 | Economy
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At the opening of trading on Tuesday, February 6, the Russian national currency practically does not change the rate of reserve currencies.

Quotations fluctuate around yesterday's closing level, alternately leaving that in plus, in a minus. As of 11:30 on the Moscow stock exchange for $ 1 calculations, "tomorrow" was 57.14 rubles (5 kopecks less than on the previous day), and 1 euro was worth 70.93 rubles (2 kopecks less). Compared to yesterday, when the ruble was rapidly losing in price, today there is a lull on the exchanges. On Monday, the Russian currency weakened against the dollar amid a slight drop in the price of oil. In addition, investors who get rid of US bonds and crypto currency, actively bought dollars, which markedly increased its value, and therefore led to a weakening of the ruble, says Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov. Experts say that the Russian currency has exhausted the growth potential in relation to the dollar and the euro, and therefore we should soon expect its significant weakening. Nevertheless, a number of specialists are of the opinion that the financial reform of the eurozone planned for this year will serve as a factor of stability of the ruble. By the summer of the EU countries must agree on the transformation of the European stabilization mechanism into the European Monetary Fund, which will be subordinate to the European Parliament. The new structure will become the continental analogue of the IMF, which comes to the rescue of countries that are in a difficult economic situation. In addition, the European Commission is preparing to create new budget tools to equalize financial support for weaker countries. This will serve as insurance against the tightening of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. If he raises the key rate, then countries with a weaker economy will be harder to serve the national debt. A new mechanism will help them in this. Reform will make the eurozone more protected from external shocks and reduce the volatility of the single European currency, explains RIA Novosti. By the middle of the year, the euro will fall slightly against the dollar, as now, due to the weakening of the US currency on world exchanges, the euro seems somewhat overvalued. After this, the value of the euro will decrease and in relation to the ruble - to a level of approximately 67.5 rubles. But then the effect of the reform will work, and the euro will begin to strengthen consistently relative to the major world currencies, including the ruble. "Nevertheless, for us the stability of the euro means the stability of the ruble. Therefore, for the Russian currency, as well as for the currencies of developing countries, this is a positive factor. The ruble will come to an equilibrium value with the euro, "- said the deputy director of the analytical department of Alpari, Anna Kokoreva. In the long term, the strengthening of the euro against the Russian currency is inevitable. But the ruble will not weaken as much as it could. After the completion of the eurozone reform, the ruble will feel better than other currencies in emerging markets, said Timur Nigmatullin, analyst of the market analysis department of the company "Opening a Broker". The second positive factor for the ruble is that the reforms will accelerate the growth of the euro area economy. Indirectly this will contribute to the positive dynamics of Russian GDP and the ruble exchange rate, as the Russian and European economies are closely linked. Even despite sanctions, the trade turnover between the Russian Federation and the EU reaches $ 300 billion a year.

The jumps in the ruble's exchange rate against the euro are in any case not expected. Changes will occur smoothly. The guarantor of this is the favorable conjuncture in the energy markets (oil maintains a high level of prices), as well as a balanced policy of the Bank of Russia. Filling reserves and conducting interventions, the regulator protects the ruble against external stresses. In addition, it predictably and gradually reduces the rate, so the market has time to foresee these changes.




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