At the auction on Wednesday, January 31, the ruble went into a decisive attack on the dollar. Since the beginning of the trading session, the US currency has lost 29 kopecks and reached the level of 56.09 rubles. Euro on the Moscow Stock Exchange has fallen in price by 3 kopecks, to 69.88 rubles. The day before, the market reacted positively to the publication of two reports of the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury. Experts feared that the country's financial authorities will require the Congress to immediately impose a ban on the purchase of Russian debt securities. This did not happen, why the ruble appreciably increased in price to the dollar and euro. The American currency fell to 55.89 rubles, the European currency - to 69.37 rubles. An additional factor in strengthening the ruble in the first half of trading was the general weakening of the US currency at the auctions in Europe. However, then the quotes turned sharply. At the American session (when it was already late in the evening), the dollar began to grow rapidly. He was helped by statistics on the housing market and consumer confidence, as well as statements by Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin that a strong dollar meets the long-term interests of the United States. It is noteworthy that just a few days ago, the official said that a weak dollar would help American exports, but, after he was besieged by President Donald Trump, changed his mind. "Decrease in oil quotes increased pressure on the Russian currency. By the close of the day, the ruble lost all the points earned, "said Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov. For today, experts have prepared pessimistic forecasts for the ruble. "The market will cease to rejoice that the Russian national debt has not come under the knife of sanctions and will come to understand that such a prospect will remain on the agenda for the foreseeable future. "The Kremlin dossier" can potentially also bring tangible damage in view of the long list of people involved and the scale of vulnerable business interests, "said Stanislav Werner, head of the analytical department of Dominion-World.. While these expectations do not come true. Perhaps, another influential factor played: Russian companies showed increased efficiency in the Eurobond market, which supported the Russian currency. The situation will finally clear up in the evening, when the US Department of Energy will publish a report on commercial oil reserves, and ADP - statistics on the number of employed in the private sector of the United States. If the figures in the reports are higher than the forecasts, this will further spur the dollar. In case of negative statistics, the ruble may continue to strengthen. With regard to the future consequences of the "Kremlin report", experts' opinions differ.
Some say that a formal approach to drawing it up has shown that the likelihood of imposing sanctions on purchases of federal loan bonds is small. Others note that US authorities have taken Russian companies into sight. Under current US law, Washington is required to impose sanctions against those "who make significant transactions with the Russian defense and intelligence sectors," unless these individuals go to a "significant reduction" in the volume of transactions. So sanctions can still be introduced, which will negatively affect the stability of the ruble.