If the incessant "case" of banks in the course of the cleansing, arranged by the "iron" leader of the Central Bank, has not surprised anyone for a long time, this time the bankers and their clients should prepare for a new scourge. The ruble may be under threat, whose positions at first glance are not threatened, and not only it. As it was possible to find out to the experts of Raiffeisenbank, in the new year the country's banking system entered with a huge hole of $ 8.4 milliard.

This is the amount that banks do not have enough to cover the shortage of dollar cash and liabilities to customers. According to experts of Raiffeisenbank, the outflow of currency from banks began at the end of last year. Its main consumers were large corporations, which had to settle with their external investors and creditors. Being cut off from the borrowing and refinancing mechanisms abroad, due to sanctions, corporations were forced to pump out the currency from Russia. According to the bank's calculations, only in December 2017. from the banking system were withdrawn $ 2.3 billion, another $ 5.2 billion was issued as loans. As for the banks themselves, to patch up the holes that have arisen, they had to put their supplies on the correspondent accounts abroad under the knife. In December, $ 4.7 billion was withdrawn from there. Another source of funds were currency bonds at $ 1.1 billion, sales of portfolios that began last summer. was obtained from the sale of foreign currency bonds, whose portfolio began to be sold in the summer when the stock of free currency ran out. Since the beginning of the new year, the situation has not improved, but only worsened. Compared to December, the dollar black hole has more than doubled - up to $ 8.4 billion. As a matter of fact, banks continue to remain on the currency scale, to withdraw from which each time more difficult. It is noteworthy that all this does not happen in the "hungry year", since there are quite a lot of currencies in the country. First of all, this is due to the growth of oil prices to $ 70 per barrel, as well as to increase interest in Russia from foreign speculators. The latter is encouraged by favor with the Russian Federation by international rating agencies, and now a favorable (temporary) outcome with the introduction of US sanctions. "After the growth of the US and other markets, the dividend yield there fell to ridiculous levels," analyst of FC Kalita-finance Dmitry Golubovsky explained to UTRO. - And they are looking for profitability around the world, including ours. Therefore, the inflow of currency goes to all emerging markets, including our. Since our market is the cheapest, the greed of investors overcomes the fear of ". It's amazing that such a powerful inflow of currency practically does not affect the currency problems of banks, whose black holes only grow. The main reason is that the lion's share of the incoming currency goes to the Ministry of Finance, which for several months diligently "vacuums" the market, sucking out of it to the last cent. Judging by the plans announced by the ministry, to collect currency from the market to cover the budget deficit, the "vacuum cleaner" will not be turned off soon. And this means that the banks will be content only with crumbs from a rich currency "table". What is dangerous about the situation around the Russian banks? First of all, the fact that the problems of the banking system begin to be involuntarily projected onto the domestic exchange rate. So, despite the fact that the rise in oil prices from $ 45 to $ 70 per barrel over the past six months, the strengthening of the ruble amounted to some pathetic pennies. Given that the import-dependent Russia suffers, first of all, from currency exchange rate inflation, it can be said that all this last rise in price of oil was for the population wasted. "This threatens the growth rates for currency funding and the reduction of the ruble," said Dmitry Golubovsky. - Given the extremely bullish positioning of speculators in the ruble, the collapse of the ruble may be quite sharp ".

Of course, to say that this possible collapse will be a harbinger of a new long-term depreciation of the ruble is not yet possible. At least, while the country receives currency from investors-speculators. But do not forget that in spite of the favorable outcome of yesterday's situation with the list of the US Treasury, the sword of Damocles of sanctions hanging over Russia, is still here. And no one said that speculators will be allowed to buy up Russian government bonds indefinitely.