With all the ensuing consequences for the countries that elected it. Approximately this conclusion arises from the results of studies conducted by analysts at Bank of America and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Experts quite categorically declare that the world energy market is awaiting a radical restructuring, assuming the rapid rejection of mankind from internal combustion engines (ICE) and other thermal power plants operating on hydrocarbon fuel. First of all, changes will affect road transport, where ICE is already being actively replaced by electric motors powered by powerful and capacious modern storage batteries. In this regard, believe in the Bank of America and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, the peak demand for petroleum products will be passed much earlier than forecasted some time ago. Presumably this will be the mid-2020s. By the beginning of the 2030s, oil and gas consumption would begin to decline quite rapidly. As already noted above, the expulsion of heat engines will begin with road transport, which now accounts for more than half of the world's oil consumption. "This last bastion of oil demand will fall in the next eight years," the Bank of America.

According to the experts of the bank, by 2023. in the world automotive industry a qualitative change will occur, when car manufacturers in large numbers will begin to move to the production of electric vehicles. This is due to the fact that by that time the cost of production of batteries will be equal to the cost of producing ICE. Also by that time, engineers will be able to significantly increase the power reserve on one battery charge and implement fast charging technology. According to the Bank of America, by 2030, 40% of all motor vehicles in the world will be electric, and by 2050 - 95%. This will lead to the fact that as early as 2025. In the world will begin an irreversible fall in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel. From 2030, the fall in prices for crude oil, with a rate of about 0.5% per year. All this, according to the Oxford Institute, will lead to the collapse of the economic model of Russia and the OPEC countries. Oil-exporting countries will be forced to engage in fierce competition among themselves. Any joint agreements between oil producers (as now between Russia and OPEC), in this case will not be possible: everyone will have to fight with others for a share in the rapidly declining market. It should be noted that in this situation Russia is not in the best position. The production conditions at its fairly old fields located in hard-to-reach regions are noticeably worse, compared to conditions in Saudi Arabia or Iran. The consequences of this development for the Russian Federation can be catastrophic, from a sharp drop in the national currency rate to technological and physical hunger. Recall that almost all modern production facilities in Russia operate on foreign equipment and technologies, and a significant portion of food and consumer products also enters the country from the outside and is paid for by proverbial petrodollars. At the same time, more than half of Russia's export revenues come from hydrocarbons. The studies of the Bank of America and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies do point to a worrisome trend for Russia, which it is not able to influence. And yet, to speak about the inevitable collapse of the foundations of its economy in this case is premature. Global persecutions on internal combustion engines do take place, but do not forget who will charge their batteries when they move to electric traction. And the energy of hydrocarbons previously used to drive cars will be used to charge their traction batteries. There are not enough alternative sources of electricity in the world to completely eliminate the process of burning hydrocarbons. The only difference is that the conventional oil will now burn not in the ICE, but in the boilers of the CHP generating electricity needed to charge a huge number of batteries. Moreover, considering that now the chain of "oil product - ICE - car" added extra elements in the form of CHP and complex accumulators, the total price of energy for the car will not only not decrease, but, on the contrary, grow. From this it is clear that the demand for oil and its derivatives will not decrease, but is likely to grow. It is also possible to increase the share of natural gas consumption, which is a preferable fuel for CHP, rather than oil fuel oil. All this suggests that when switching to electric vehicles it is impossible to exclude the use of hydrocarbons as fuel. Moreover, the demand for them can even increase. The assertions of power engineers and ecologists that the "black" energy of hydrocarbons will be displaced by the "green" energy of solar, wind and other alternative power stations, are far from the truth. All existing alternative sources are not enough to fill the gap left by the exception of cars.

This allows you to look at the forecasts of Bank of America and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies more optimistic. The only thing that can lead to the described in the forecasts is the appearance of a fundamentally new source of a huge amount of energy. For example, the creation of a working thermonuclear reactor. However, to expect its appearance in the foreseeable future is unlikely to.

While all this will not happen, the Russian export-raw material model of the economy is not much threatened.