Pessimists have brought down the ruble

15 December 2017, 11:43 | Economy
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In the coming year, hard currency is waiting for the Russian currency, Western analysts are convinced. Because of their bleak forecasts, the ruble "swam".

At the opening of today's trading, he began to rapidly lose in price. As of 11:00 Moscow time, $ 1 went up by 13 cents, to 58.89 rubles. The single European currency strengthened in the same way: for 1 euro on the exchange was given 69.43 rubles. The previous evening, Bank of America Merrill Lynch gave a negative outlook for the ruble exchange rate for 2018. The credit organization warned its customers about the possible vulnerability of the Russian currency in connection with the new sanctions, which are expected to be introduced early next year by Washington against Moscow. Analyzing the situation, the bank's specialists came to the conclusion that the restrictions could affect the scope of the Russian national debt, thereby reorienting investors to more stable currencies. This is the situation that was observed in 2014. , reminded analysts. As a result of these actions, the external debt of Russian companies (its current size is about $ 500 billion) may be under pressure. At the same time, Russia's external borrowings are not so great: Russia's external sovereign debt accounts for about $ 14.5 billion. Another unflattering prediction belongs to the head of the research direction for Asia of the Swiss financial group Julius Baer Mark Matthews. The expert believes that due to external factors, by February next year $ 1 will cost 60 rubles, and by November its value will rise to 66 rubles. "This is due not so much to the situation in Russia as to the situation outside, for example, by strengthening the US dollar in the world foreign exchange market.

We assume that the US Federal Reserve can raise the rate twice in 2018. The ruble is supported by fundamental factors, and there is no reason why it can weaken on its own, "- quotes the analyst RIA Novosti,.

At the same time, he noted that the situation in the Russian economy is improving, but the ruble is somewhat underestimated. Matthews explained the insufficient level of foreign investment by the fact that Russia can not understand Russia's mind. "Basically, Julius Baer's clients investing in Russia look at bonds, usually they are bonds of large banks and commodity companies, but it's still considered an exotic investment. This is due to the fact that a number of investors do not understand Russia, the Russian economy, "he said..



Today, on December 15, the Bank of Russia will hold a meeting at which the regulator is expected to decide on raising the key rate by 0.25 percentage points. This step was predicted for a long time by experts, and therefore it is already included in the current value of the Russian currency. According to analyst of Alpari company Vladislav Antonov, the most interesting for traders will be today's press conference of the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina on sanctions risks.




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