Ruble quotes are currently at a fairly high level. Since the beginning of the week, the "wooden" has strengthened to the bi-currency basket of the Bank of Russia by 0.3%. However, it is possible that in the coming weeks against the national currency will play all the negative factors that have long been warned by analysts. In this case, the ruble will inevitably lose in price. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in December will purchase foreign currency for a record amount of 203.9 billion rubles. In November, the state profitably traded oil and gas, receiving a solid revenue. All this money is transformed into a dollar stash. Interventions have already begun, but so far the ruble manages to keep. But the further, the more difficult it will be to maintain stability.
"The geopolitical risks associated with US sanctions and a possible ban on investment in Russia's national debt, do not lose relevance. Also it is necessary to take into account that on December 15 the decision on the rate will be made by the Russian Central Bank. There is a great probability of lowering the index, which will reduce the investment attractiveness of the ruble. Given the combination of circumstances in the near future, the Russian ruble may weaken, "- says" Rossiyskaya Gazeta "opinion of financial consultant TeleTrade Jeanne Kulakova.
Meanwhile, the decision of the Federal Reserve System to raise the rate by 0.25 percentage points, taken the day before, did not particularly affect the dynamics of quotes. The fact is that this move was already predicted by analysts for a long time, and it was previously taken into account in the current price of the American currency.
Nevertheless, the dollar will gradually be strengthened in the near future. The American regulator is very optimistic and the next year announced three consecutive increases in the key rate, a total of 0.75 percentage points. For the ruble, this means that the difference between US and Russian lending rates will be reduced, making Russian debt securities lose their attractiveness to investors, which means that the ruble will depreciate.
On the eve of the closing of the Moscow stock exchange $ 1 was worth 58.61 rubles, 1 euro - 69.25 rubles. According to Kulakova, with a high degree of probability, it is possible to forecast the growth of the dollar rate and the depreciation of the euro. Dynamics can be quite noticeable for one day - up to 1-2%. However, the value of the bi-currency basket of the Central Bank of Russia on this background will change little. A protective mechanism for the ruble for a while will also be the growth of oil quotes.