In January, Trump will drop the ruble

24 November 2017, 12:27 | Economy
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In January next year, it will be known which restrictive measures Washington intends to introduce against Moscow in the framework of the previously adopted law "On confrontation with America's adversaries through sanctions" (CAATSA). If the ban on the purchase of Russian securities, US investors will start to get rid of them. What are the consequences of this, is still unknown. On this account, there are different opinions. The Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, does not see any serious consequences of this step for the domestic financial market,. RU". In her opinion, the drop in demand from the Americans will be paid off due to the activity of other players. "We do not know what will be accepted for federal loan bonds (OFZ), this is a special report. Of course, we also analyze the consequences for different scenarios. In our opinion, there will not be any serious negative consequences. Although we have a significant share of foreigners in the OFZ market, their share is limited. There is always a demand for OFZ from our banking sector, we see it, "- said the head of the Central Bank, speaking in the State Duma some time ago. According to the estimations of the regulator, in case of such a ban, the yield on OFZ may jump for a short time, "but most likely the increase will not be very large". "In any case, we have the necessary tools to counteract such shocks," said Nabiullina. However, outside experts are less complacent. According to them, the yield of securities is really unlikely to grow in earnest and for a long time. The worst thing in this situation will be the Russian currency. Analyst of the company "Alor Broker" Yevgeny Koryukhin admits that the share of US residents in the volume of OFZ does not exceed 2% and that a possible ban will not significantly affect the cost of securities. At the same time, the share of all non-residents, including Cypriot companies, is about 30% as of November 1, 2017. That is, they collectively own securities by about $ 40 billion, he points out.. And this is already a lot. "Sale (of similar volumes of securities) will cause only a temporary drawdown, as interest in these securities will show Russian banks. The main blow, most likely, will be in the ruble, as, by selling bonds, non-residents will convert the profits received into a currency with its further withdrawal abroad, "said Bogdan Zvarych, senior analyst at IK" Freedom Finance ". The antidote recipe is relatively simple: to neutralize the danger perhaps through the saturation of the market with currency. This will prevent a significant weakening of the ruble and compensate for the demand for currency from non-residents.

The gold and currency reserves of the Central Bank as of November 10 were $ 426.4 billion.

This amount is sufficient to take timely operational measures.



However, at a short distance the jump in the ruble's rate will still be strong and unpleasant.

However, far from all experts generally believe that within the next sanctions package, the US authorities will be forbidden to own Russian government bonds. "It is very difficult for me to assume that the administration has taken measures aimed at prohibiting keeping what has already been bought. It will be very strange, it will hit the interests of institutional investors, pension funds, "- said Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak.




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