Ukraine lost about 1.5% of GDP due to the blockade of the Donbass, Yuri Grymchak, deputy minister for affairs beyond Kyiv's control, admitted on Wednesday, Aug. 9 in an interview with "The Fifth Channel". According to him, out of the expected 4% GDP growth in the first quarter, it actually turned out to be 2.3%, which allows us to estimate the losses from the blockade. Earlier, Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman said that because of the winter blockade of Donbass, the country lost 1% of GDP growth, as well as a number of industrial assets. Until recently, these enterprises paid taxes to the budget of Ukraine, and now there are no more. At the same time, the overall growth rates of the Ukrainian economy continue to outpace the Russian. According to experts, Kiev is trying to give out what is desired for the actual.
At the end of July, IEP analysts. Egor Gaydar, RASHiGS and the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade (VAVT) presented an updated three-year forecast of the Russian economy, in which the recovery trends of the second quarter of 2017 are not recognized as long-term. According to experts, in the next three years, Russia will not be able to achieve even 2% of GDP growth per year. Our economy rested on structural limitations, which it will be extremely difficult to overcome in the medium term.
Against this background, Ukraine looks better, although growth of 2.3% was complicated by a threefold devaluation of the national currency and a record 20 years of inflation. If in the first quarter of last year the growth was 0.1% of GDP, then by the fourth quarter it had already reached an impressive 4.8%. The main source of recovery was domestic demand, which increased in 2016 by 6.4% after a decline of 13.3% in 2015. Experts of the IMF believe that by 2040 the economy of Ukraine can approach European indicators. True, for this, the country needs to reduce to the European level and the level of corruption.
Chairman of the Russian Economic Society. Sharapova, Professor of the Department of International Finance at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Valentin Katasonov told the Free Press that it is impossible to rely on official estimates of the inflation rate either in Russia or in Ukraine. According to him, the inflation rate in the Russian Federation today is strikingly different from that declared by Rosstat, as the basket of goods and services does not take into account housing and communal services tariffs that rise regularly and tangibly.
Ukrainian statistics are as false as the Russian one, says economist. Therefore, there are doubts that in Ukraine there is an overall economic growth. According to Katasonov, good statistics make it possible to talk about the benefits of IMF loans for the Ukrainian economy.
For real estimates of GDP growth, it is necessary to see the volumes of electricity consumption and freight transportation - these indicators adequately reflect the economic dynamics. And it is unlikely that these indicators speak for growth, the economist. As far as the blockade of Donbass, says Katasonov, it has caused far more damage than the losses claimed by the Ukrainian authorities in 1.5% of GDP, since it led to the shutdown of several large enterprises in the central part of Ukraine due to the cessation of supplies of coal and metal.
Ukraine is destined for the advent of agrarian transnational corporations that will grow genetically modified crops there. The earth is the main asset that can be of interest to investors in Nezalezhny.
According to the head of the direction "Finance and Economics" of the Institute of Contemporary Development Nikita Maslennikov, Kiev's statistics really raise doubts. At the same time, the assessments of international observers (IMF and World Bank) are very low-key. Ukraine will have to go to the level of 2013 for a long time, the expert believes..