The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation from today starts operations on buying up foreign currency. For these purposes, the excess revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons abroad will be spent. Volumes of purchases of foreign currency will grow by 640 times compared to the previous month, however this will have little impact on the ruble exchange rate, analysts are convinced.

The Finance Ministry said last week that from August 7 to September 6, 47.6 billion rubles will be spent on the purchase of foreign currency on the domestic foreign exchange market. This surplus was due to the fact that oil and gas revenues exceeded the original estimate due to a higher exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble, as well as increased gas production and increased exports of petroleum products. In July, the deviation was 7.4 billion rubles, in August, it is expected to grow to 40.2 billion rubles.

Each working day within the next month, the Central Bank, on the instructions of the Ministry of Finance, will conclude deals for the purchase of foreign currency at the organized trades of the Moscow Stock Exchange. The daily purchase amount to 2.07 billion rubles. Acquired monetary units will be sent to the accounts of the Federal Treasury at the Bank of Russia.

The market reacted very calmly to the appetite for foreign currency that had awakened from the Ministry of Finance, although, at first glance, such news could significantly weaken the ruble.

Experts in the banking sector believe that the Ministry of Finance's interventions will not have a significant impact on the exchange rate of the domestic currency. Nordea Bank noted that the planned operations, although they are 640 times higher than the previous month, their volume is extremely limited in the scale of the Russian foreign exchange market. Alfa Bank also pointed out that the declared amount "will not affect the ruble rate, as long as the course is still influenced by geopolitical tensions between Russia and the US".

The investment bank VTB Capital believes that this week, when the Ministry of Finance begins intervention, "the demand for foreign currency connected with dividends should decrease". "Now the ruble is fundamentally undervalued by about 1.0-1.5%. However, if the inflow of foreign investors' funds increases, the ruble rate may even exceed its "fair" level, "said Maxim Korovin, senior strategist of the bank.

At the same time, a number of experts are sure that the negative factors for the ruble are inevitable. Alpari is confident that the Ministry of Finance is playing against the ruble. According to analysts of the company, the financial department does not need to buy dollars. "Russia's international reserves are more than $ 400 billion, which is quite enough for financial stability. Additional revenues of the treasury must be used to stimulate domestic demand and, above all, to allow for the indexation of pensions and salaries in the public sector, "said Alexander Razuvaev, director of the analytical department of Alpari..

The intervention of the Ministry of Finance will exacerbate other "bearish" factors in relation to the ruble, including the expectation of devaluation for a part of the population. "Looking at the policy of the Russian Ministry of Finance in relation to the national economy, one remembers an old anecdote: the gypsy decided to teach the horse to starve and almost taught, but then it suddenly died," the specialist noted..

Gazprombank predicted that the return of intervention volume in August to the June level will further shift the balance of risks for the ruble towards weakening. Current interventions "will be conducted in conditions of significantly less support for the ruble from the balance of payments" than at the beginning of the year. "Firstly, the current account surplus of $ 23 billion in the first quarter of this year was replaced by a deficit of minus $ 0.

3 billion in the second quarter, which could expand to minus $ 7 billion in the third quarter amid seasonality and sustained growth in imports. Secondly, the capital account is also in the risk zone due to the recent deterioration of foreign policy rhetoric, "- said the bank's economist Dmitry Dolgin.

As a result, according to him, experts of the credit organization consider the growth of the Ministry of Finance's interventions "as a factor in supporting the expectations of the course's depreciation in the range of 63-65 rubles for $ 1 in the third quarter".