The Russian currency continues to take positions. During the morning trading on Friday, the euro rate for the first time since November 2016 exceeded 69 rubles. The dollar is sure to be fixed above 60 rubles. , Having updated the January highs. Analysts expect that, and next week, the weakening of the ruble will continue.

The exchange rate of the national currency is negatively affected by the fall in oil prices caused by the continued increase in production in the US. In addition, more and more doubts are caused by the fate of the OPEC + agreement on limiting the production of black gold. As it turned out this week, members of the cartel also significantly increase oil production. First of all, at the expense of those countries, which are not subject to the terms of the transaction.

Libya in June reached the maximum level of production for four years, exceeding 1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia increased production by 90 thousand. Barrels per day, Angola and the United Arab Emirates each added 40 thousand. , Another 150 thousand. Equatorial Guinea, which became a member of OPEC in May this year. In total, in the first month of summer, the cartel began to produce 260 thousand. Barrels per day more, and the combined production of all countries of the organization was 32.55 million barrels per day.

To these already unfavorable circumstances, a fair share of the negative added pessimistic expectations from the first meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump. It should take place today on the margins of the G20 summit in Hamburg at 16:45 Moscow time.

The difficulty of predicting the outcome of these negotiations against the backdrop of cheap oil is unnerving investors and makes them preventively get rid of ruble assets. In addition, the sword of Damocles over Russia and, accordingly, over its currency, continues to be threatened by serious tightening of sanctions by the US.

Many analysts doubt that Trump is able to significantly influence the issue of their introduction, except to postpone, as if he personally did not belong to Russia. However, his attitude towards Russia is in itself a very vague circumstance.

"Now the Russian-American relations are at an impasse, they do not develop, and in many respects this is due to the fact that Trump's agenda with regard to Russia is absolutely incomprehensible," notes the professor at Moscow State University. Lomonosov Doctor of Political Sciences Andrei Manoilo.

According to the expert, for the American president this is both a minus and a plus. On the one hand, a politician of this level, not having a program, and acting only intuitively on improvisations, is doomed to the rapid failure of his career. On the other hand, Trump's opponents are most afraid of his unpredictability, and without seeing any clear program, they begin to plunge into conspiracy, and this scares them very much.

"They are afraid that Trump at some point will act contrary to all conventions, principles and rules of good taste. And it will come unexpectedly, "the political scientist explained.. But investors, this nebula scares no less.

Ideally, the best outcome of the meeting of the two presidents would be the promulgation of this very Trump Russian agenda after discussing key points with Putin,. "If Trump promulgates his agenda, it will be a bomb. This will mean a turning point in both Russian-American relations and generally the situation in the world, "he said..

But there are substantial suspicions that the new owner of the White House simply does not have his own strategy towards Russia.

In this case, the expert believes, the talks will be about building a new communication model that allows the two presidents to interact so that Trump does not get constantly under the blows of the Congress.

"That's what it will say, accompanied by the words that issues of general order were discussed - Syria, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the fight against international terrorism," predicted the political scientist.

Unfortunately, the second option is still more likely. And this means, most likely, further strengthening of sanctions against Russia. And no positive news for the ruble in the near future is not expected.