Over the past few months, it became clear that the concept of national self-interest of Donald Trump is quite capable of changing the opinion of him of his irreconcilable opponents. It seems that they have already realized that they can be allies in the return of greatness to America, but instead of soft power one should use a solid. To achieve its economic goals, the US is still ready to act by coercion, if not to say, blackmail, as demonstrated by the bill on new Russian sanctions adopted by the lower house of Congress.
In fact, we are talking about a hard and consistent lobbying of the interests of American gas workers and oil workers, who too late entered the path of competitive war for the markets. If Trump will be able to clear a place for them under the sun, the United States will get tens of thousands of jobs and tens of billions of dollars, which the new president promised the country during his election campaign. Just misunderstood him.
In the south of the US, near the places where shale hydrocarbon deposits are being developed, LNG-terminals (LNG-liquefied natural gas, liquefied natural gas) and seaports are being built at an unprecedented rate. The design capacity of the Sabine Pass liquefied natural gas terminal in Louisiana is 27 million tons per year. Another terminal - Corpus Christie - is being built in Texas, its productivity is 23 million tons per year. If we translate into the usual units of measurement, it is approximately 70 billion cubic meters. Let me remind you that last year Gazprom supplied to Europe 170 billion cubic meters. And I am ready to increase the volumes.
Before reaching the design capacity of both terminals, there are several years to wait, but the gas trader who does not think half a century ahead is bad. The extraction costs are too high. While Sabine Pass produces 4.5 million tons per year, and the first phase of Corpus Christie is only half ready. But gas workers can not continue construction if they do not have prospects and contracted volumes.
While attempts to trade independently, without the involvement of lobbyists from Washington, were not successful. Several tankers left for Latin America, but all the gas that America can produce in its shale fields, it just does not need. The test tanker to India, too, will probably be the last. If you do not take drastic measures.
The main competitors of American slates are Russia, which supplies cheap pipeline gas to Europe, and Qatar, which supplies liquefied gas to the countries of Southeast Asia. Economic logic suggests that it is against them that a series of tough political, and if necessary military, strikes will be directed. The price of the question is too high.
The vector of the fight against Moscow is indicated: sanctions. True, this time the European oil and gas companies participating in the Nord Stream-2 project also favored the distribution, which displeased German and Austrian politicians. But their resistance will be broken if national interests they, as before, sacrifice transatlantic solidarity.
That's why Vladimir Putin is so in a hurry to start the construction of the "Turkish Stream", which became known the other day. This pipeline is still beyond the reach of the Americans - after an unsuccessful attempt at a coup d'etat between Ankara and Washington, almost irresolvable political disagreements arose. But in the USA they are sure to look for those sick places that can be pressed to make Turkey more docile.
It is hardly a mistake if I assume that the acute problems that the Doha affair with neighboring capitals have also been stimulated from Washington. Qatar - the most serious player in the market LNG, that is, a direct competitor to the terminals Sabine Pass and Corpus Christie. It annually exports 77 million tons of liquefied gas - 106 billion cubic meters. If it can be neutralized, the US shale industry will become profitable.
In short, nothing new: all geopolitical events, especially in the Middle East, like anti-Russian sanctions, should be considered taking into account the "hydrocarbon" problem. For example, we are likely to be able to agree with the Americans on Syria, since the establishment of stability in this country puts a reliable barrier to the Qatar pipe, which, as is known, the emirate planned to pave in Europe. Neither Russia nor the US, the strengthening of this tiny monarchy flooding with terrorists and capable of changing the borders of states due to their wealth, does not need.
But if we are pursuing the same goals with the Americans on the Qatar issue, then in the struggle for the energy supply of the Old World, Washington and Moscow faced foreheads. And, than this gas war will end, while it is not known.
To us, strangely enough, the doctrine of Trump, in which the contradiction. On the one hand, the new president tries to restore greatness to the fatherland, refusing, among other things, external obligations, including to European allies.
On the other hand, Washington is imposing on Brussels its very expensive liquefied gas, focusing on allied relations, which imply a joint struggle with Russia.
In old European capitals, it was already realized that the US is trying to use them to solve its internal problems. And the longer the former allies mutually accuse each other of betraying transatlantic unity, they argue and decide who should buy gas and at what price, the better for us. "Gazprom" needs only two years to build the "Turkish flow" and "Nord Stream - 2". After that, one of the battles for Europe can be considered complete.