The Russian ruble was freed from the captivity of illusions, in which he happened to stay for quite a long time. Since the beginning of this week, it has sharply weakened its positions relative to the dollar and the euro, and not later than yesterday the quotes of the American currency overcame an important mark of 60 rubles. For $ 1. The single European currency has set a new high since December - 67.0550 rubles. Judging by today's trading, the Russian ruble does not show any special opportunities to win back losses at the beginning of the week.
What is happening in the market and is it worth waiting for the restoration of the status quo with a relatively strong and stable ruble, formed at the beginning of summer? Apparently not: the previous external conditions no longer function and a new "picture of the world" for the Russian currency will be formed on the basis of new realities.
The first and main reason for the sharp weakening of the ruble was the prospect of curtailing the Kerry-Trade pyramid, which developed around Russian OFZs, which gained popularity among foreign speculators due to their high profitability.
The US Congress is developing the possibility of limiting the access of US investors to Russian bonds. And this, in turn, is becoming an increasingly obvious threat of a collapse of the Kerry-traded bubble, inflated around Russian bonds, with obvious consequences for the ruble.
The second critical moment for the Russian currency is the weakening oil. While the ruble exchange rate was actively fueled by the money of speculators who invested cheap foreign money in OFZ with a very favorable rate, the events in the oil market had virtually no effect on the position of the ruble. Today the situation is changing - the collapse of the Kerry-Trade bubble is seen by financiers as more than probable, which means that the long-term dependence of the exchange rate of the Russian currency on the fluctuation of oil prices will be restored fairly quickly.
The saddest thing in this situation is that things are very disturbing with oil. The fall of oil quotations since April was about 18%. The cost of the barrel of the brent fell below $ 45 on the data on the growth in production in the US, Libya and Nigeria.
Against black gold, there are data on stocks that are stubbornly reluctant to decline, despite the efforts of OPEC and other oil producers that have joined it, including Russia.
On Wednesday, June 21, Bloomberg reports, the French company Kpler SAS, tracking cargo movements, released data on the growth of oil reserves stored in tankers. According to Kpler SAS, their volume reached 111.9 million barrels, which is the maximum value for this year.
The reason for the new record is the increase in stocks in the North Sea (by 32% this year), Singapore (by 23%) and Iran. In turn, the continuing increase in inventories speaks of the failure of OPEC's attempt and the countries that joined it, to agree on measures to limit oil production. They did not manage to balance the market.
Thus, the above set of factors forms extremely unfavorable conditions that call into question the stability of the Russian ruble.
"As many economists predicted, OPEC's agreement to limit oil production could not keep quotes of black gold above $ 50 per barrel," explained Vice-President of the Golden Mint House Alexei Vyazovsky. - Since April 2017. Brent crude oil fell by 18% and appears, and this is not the limit. Summer is a low season in terms of consumption of oil products, demand is falling, prices are also falling. And this is a verdict for the ruble, whose buyers have lost the sense of reality. Already from the beginning of the winter it was clear that the strengthening of the national currency occurs against the backdrop of speculative inflow of foreign capital, which can be withdrawn by one click of the mouse. This click we now see. Speculators on the difference in interest rates (kerry traders) ran out of the country, simultaneously selling OFZ and devaluing the ruble ".
Up to what levels can the domestic currency fall - the expert asks the question. Despite a rather serious confluence of circumstances, according to Alexei Vyazovsky, waiting for the disaster is not worth it. "Most likely the ruble will return to the usual traded range of 62 to 65 rubles. For one unit of American currency, "says the expert.. - This is the most comfortable for the government and industry level, which settled before the bubble of the Kerry-trade ".