Russian stock markets met on Thursday morning, June 15, the fall. The MICEX index dropped below 1800 points for the first time since February 2016. The RTS index has updated the semi-annual minimum, having fallen below 1000 points. Last time for this feature he left in November last year. The main reason for such negative dynamics was the "double blow" from the US.
On the eve of the Fed for the second time in a year raised the key interest rate to the range of 1 - 1.25% per annum. This increase was the fourth in a two-year cycle of tightening the US monetary policy. And it is expected that in the second half of the year the rate will grow further.
Simultaneously, the US Senate approved amendments to the bill on increasing pressure on Iran, implying tightening of existing anti-Russian sanctions and the introduction of new. In particular, in addition to extractive industries, rail and sea traffic. In addition, legal entities and individuals will be prohibited from lending by Russian banks for more than 14 days (now this limitation is 90 days), and the financing of Russian energy companies will be limited to 30 days.
Another long-discussed and important sanctioning innovation is punitive measures against those who invested from $ 1 million at a time or $ 5 million, in total, for a year to build Russian export pipelines or provided equipment (including leasing) for them, Technologies and services. This measure could be a serious obstacle to the "Nord Stream-2".
An increase in the rate of the Fed and tightening of sanctions can lead to a weakening of the ruble, especially since the Russian Central Bank, on the contrary, continues to soften monetary policy. It is not excluded that tomorrow he will lower the key rate to 8.75% per annum. Earlier, the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said that she sees a medium-term target for this indicator in the region of 6-7%. As a result, the gap between the rates is reduced, making the transactions of carry trade less attractive, which basically support the Russian currency.
The opinions of officials of the economic bloc of the government on this issue are divided. Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday evening that he sees no cause for concern and risks for the outflow of capital. He recalled that the decision of the American regulator was expected. And the ruble, according to the head of the Ministry of Finance, remains quite an interesting currency for investors. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, in turn, predicted a fall in the ruble rate due to the Fed's rate hike.
News from the US ruble played back yesterday. At the opening of trading today, the dollar and the euro added a few more kopecks, but then the Russian currency began to restore positions.
Independent analysts in this case are in solidarity, rather, with the Finance Ministry and no significant long-term impact on Russian markets, the decisions of the Fed and the US Senate are not expected, although short-term speculative fluctuations are, of course, possible.
"Russian stocks are already quite cheap relative to other emerging markets, in dollars the domestic stock market fell by more than 50% compared to historical highs," recalled the director of the Alpari analytical department Alexander Razuvaev.
He also believes that foreign money will still come to Russia, despite the prohibitions. "Offshore guys will bypass all sanctions. Lust for profit can not be beaten by any measures, "the expert explains.. A delta between the rates of the Fed and the Bank of Russia is still large enough to maintain the attractiveness of carry carry transactions.