The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, who often spoke about the benefits of a weak ruble and foreshadowed the rapid weakening of the Russian currency, issued a new statement. As the minister noted on the air of the TV channel Rossiya 24, the depreciation of the ruble will begin already in the coming summer months.

It is noteworthy that this time he found this rather unexpected explanation. So, according to Oreshkin, the fall in the exchange rate of the Russian currency will be provided by Russians themselves and Russian companies actively buying imported goods, which contributes to the outflow of currency from the country.

"Imports of goods from abroad are growing by 20-25%," the head of the Ministry of Economic Development. According to him, if this thread spreads to the summer months, the country will face "a serious deficit in the current account of the balance of payments", as a result of which the outflow of currency will exceed its income to the country.

This, according to Oreshkin, will lead to the fact that "it is unlikely that we will see that strong ruble, which is now: at current oil prices, the exchange rate should go somewhere in the range of 62-63 rubles per dollar".

Recall that, in accordance with the forecast of the same Ministry of Economic Development, which is the basis for planning the state budget for 2017-20, by the end of 2017, the dollar is expected to grow to 68 rubles and more than 70 rubles after the presidential election-2018.

At the same time, the import of goods in Russia is indeed growing, and, unexpectedly, at a rapid pace.

So, according to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, in the first quarter, abroad, goods were purchased for $ 45.5 billion, which is more than half of all currency earned ($ 83.8 billion).

As a result, to date, the volume of consumption of imported products, which collapsed in due time, together with oil prices, recovered to the levels of early 2010.

Some "experts" agree with the "import" version of the ruble's weakening, although few are ready to consider it as the prevailing.

"Indeed, in the summer months, you can expect an increased demand for currency from the population," explained Vice-President of the Golden Mint House Alexei Vyazovsky. "And this is due not only to purchases of imported goods, but also to the season of holidays, when citizens are going to the euro and dollars for trips abroad".

However, according to the expert, the destiny of the ruble will be decided not by growing imports. "I see a special danger for the ruble by the end of the year, when Russian state corporations and large banks will have to pay out large-scale foreign currency loans," Vyazovsky said.. - And this, in fact, can lead to a weakening of the ruble in the area of ??65-70 rubles. For one unit of American currency ".

He does not particularly believe in the "destructive power" of imports and a member of the General Council of the Party of Growth, a businessman and former State Duma deputy Viktor Zvagelsky. "Naturally, this is one of the many factors by which the ruble will be weakened, but this is an ordinary situation, moreover, it is still seasonal," he explained, "Utro". - Due to the fact that citizens will buy imported goods, the ruble will not fall by 5 points. The ruble is now ruled not by the economy, but by the Central Bank, which keeps its course exactly as much as it needs it ".

According to Zvagelsky, the ruble rate is unjustifiably high today, in which he agrees with the head of the Ministry of Economic Development. "We have huge problems with exporters," says the expert..

- Ruble prices did not go down while strengthening the ruble, and according to all economic law the ruble should be released. But they will not let him go, because in view of the forthcoming elections, the ruble will be artificially restrained, and the latter will gradually be weakened.

More than that, we do not know how oil will behave and all the talk that the ruble does not depend on oil is a conversation about nothing. The ruble is now tied to oil more than necessary, and all the rest is the containment of the Central Bank ".