The bacchanalia of speculative operations on the Russian foreign exchange and debt market seems to have bothered even the Central Bank, which with its high stakes and created greenhouse conditions for the circulation of hot money. For a long time, the regulator has stubbornly followed the strict monetary and credit policy, despite criticism from the economic bloc of the government and independent experts. But now there is every reason to expect its mitigation.

For the first quarter of this year, Russia received a record number of foreign capital - 250 billion rubles. (4.4 billion dollars). But they do not bring any benefit to the Russian economy. They are used mainly to finance carry trade - the game on the difference in interest rates, which in Europe and the US today are hanging somewhere in the region of zero, and in Russia only recently dropped from 10% to 9.75%.

Speculators take loans in dollars and euros, change to rubles, buy ruble bonds with high yield, after 2-3 months close positions and withdraw funds back. And so, as noted earlier this week by the federal business ombudsman Boris Titov, can make profit with minimal risks and absolutely nothing to worry about.

It is the demand from speculators, according to many economists, is the main reason for the strengthening of the ruble, which has not reacted even to changes in oil quotes lately. Since the beginning of this year, it has added 8% to the dollar and 7.2% to the euro. But as a result, the "exchange rate bubble" formed in the foreign exchange market, which at any moment can burst, provoking a sharp collapse of the national currency, warned Titov.

Dissatisfaction with too strong a ruble repeatedly expressed representatives of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development. This slows the filling of the treasury, which is mainly due to revenues from the sale of oil and gas. In addition, a high interest rate limits the investment activity of the real sector of the economy.

And one of these days, speaking, which is typical, at the enlarged board of the Ministry of Finance, the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that already at the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on April 28 the rate could be lowered in the range from 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points.

It is noteworthy that this statement was made just on the eve of the "week of silence", when representatives of the Central Bank on the eve of the meeting refrains from public statements. In the opinion of Irina Lebedeva, an analyst with Uralsib FC, it "practically guarantees a reduction in the rate".

Next, it should be noted that this will be the second reduction in the last two months, although at the beginning of the year the regulator sent clear signals that it is not worth waiting for such decisions before the summer. Nevertheless, on March 24, the rate was lowered, albeit purely symbolically: by 0.25% instead of the traditional 0.5%.

Nabiullina also admitted that speculative games have an impact on the ruble exchange rate, but, in her opinion, not very large.

Of course, it was not so much the arguments of opponents that accelerated the reduction of the Central Bank's rate, but how good the inflation indicators - the main target of the department. According to him, in March, the rate of price growth slowed to 4.3%, and as of April 17, in annual terms - to 4.1%. But in any case, the market is already feeling that the rate of the regulator has slightly changed in the opposite direction.

It is not, of course, expected that the policy of the Bank of Russia will soften dramatically. According to experts, by the end of the year, it is possible to reduce the rate to 8-8.5%, but no more, although for a normal economic development with inflation in the region of 4%, the key rate should be at least 6-7%. Titov believes that this indicator should not exceed 5% to provide business access to affordable loans.

Nevertheless, the period of a strong ruble seems to be coming to an end. Even if the collapse does not happen, in the second half of the national currency will still begin to weaken, many economists predict.

Gradual reduction of the Central Bank's key rate will cool the interest of speculators in carry carry transactions.

In addition, the fate of the agreement to reduce oil production between OPEC and a number of independent exporting states, led by Russia, remains unclear. Its real effectiveness is also difficult to assess. Therefore, the fall in oil prices is not ruled out.

According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development, the price of black gold may drop to $ 40 per barrel, and the dollar rate in this case will rise to 68 rubles, and if current prices remain-to 62 rubles. With such assessments, independent analysts generally agree.