The government now has a new entertainment - a game of taxes. Especially fascinating toy they were in the hands of the Ministry of Finance. So, the department adheres without stopping: it is necessary to replenish the budget - we change taxes, set the task to take business out of the shadows - again we take on taxes, it's time to get rid of inequality in society - again,. But the monotony of proposals is depressing: everything, in one way or another, boils down to an increase in the tax burden.
This frenzy has begun since the last message of the President to the Federal Assembly. Then Putin ironically noted Siluanov's fear of tax cuts. Yes, such a power of fear that the Minister of Finance even asked Vladimir Vladimirovich not to voice how well the tax benefits affected the IT sphere. However, then Putin clearly put everything in its place, and the reduction of taxes was given by the green light.
However, in the Ministry of Finance, the president's appeal was interpreted in some way in his own way, specifically, literally in the style of "he is an artist, he sees it". We started with the discussion of the luxury tax, then we started raising the personal income tax to 15% in case of refusal to pay to individual pension capital (and no one naturally wants to pay - the faith in pensions has been lost for a long time and for a long time), and now they propose to raise VAT to 22%.
The only exception is the proposal to exempt from tax persons who are residents of other states and are under sanctions. But such indulgences do not threaten ordinary people. To get in the number of such "beneficiaries", you need to own a very large business (possibly, based on the results of dubious privatization of the 90's), have close relations with the authorities and second citizenship. It's good that they do not remember the abolition of import duties for yachts ... So what awaits us, ordinary mortals?.
Most likely, the first thing to realize is the intention to reduce social contributions to the Pension Fund and the Social Insurance Fund to 22% with a parallel increase in VAT from 18% to 22%.
In practice, the tax maneuver "22/22" looks like this. First, entrepreneurs will pay less deductions to social funds for their employees. Currently, contributions to the pension fund and the social insurance fund account for 30%. Reduction of these payments is really good news. It is for the sake of saving on these deductions that some employees are not registered in the staff, or they are credited with a minimum salary "for a tick", and all the rest is paid in envelopes. Reducing the fees, of course, will not take the whole business out of the shadows, since this sector of the economy is too big for us - 11% of employees are not registered at all, and more than 40% of the workforce are somehow connected with the shadow sector. But progress in the issue of legalization of entrepreneurial activities will be exactly. People go into the shade simply because there are no other options for survival. There will be conditions for normal business conduct better, there will be a "white" design.
However, according to the logic of the Ministry of Finance, it is impermissible luxury, even in case of giant Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves, to admit a decrease in the population's fees ... According to the Cabinet's idea, the increase of VAT to 22% should compensate for the decrease in social contributions. But if you look at the volumes that the financial department is going to compensate for by increasing the value-added tax, then either the business out of the shadow is not expected, or we are misled, and simply try again to shove your hand into the pockets of Russians.
Adding these 4% to the cost of goods can be very painful for consumers and producers. Real disposable incomes of the population and so on last year decreased by 5.9%, and do not have an obvious tendency to growth. And then there is a price increase due to new VAT rates! On the belts, which we have to delay, we will have to make new holes ... The volumes of retail trade in 2016 fell by 5.2%, and this is not only because people began to prefer cheaper goods and products, but because, That in general they began to consume less (physical volume of goods sold in 2015 decreased by 10.3%, even food bought by 9% less. In 2017, their six acres with beds will not lose their relevance.
In order to somehow support demand and not stay at the broken trough, entrepreneurs will be forced to lower selling prices, sacrificing profits. Maybe, then business and population will be given affordable capital? It was not there! The increase in VAT, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, should lead to an increase in inflation by 2%. So, forgive the decline in the key rate of the Central Bank, and cheap loans, which could spur the economy to growth.
And most importantly - in such a situation, the ratio of deductions in favor of state profits. Now, according to the calculations of the World Bank (domestic analyst is not complete and clever does not include dozens of non-tax payments), in Russia the business is forced to pay about 47% of the profit - very much. Surprisingly, even Anton Siluanov admitted that the financial burden in Russia is one of the highest in the world. But to recognize, in our case, does not mean to start correcting. The optimal load, according to studies, for example, the Higher School of Economics, are values ??close to 30%. Then the best balance is achieved between the interest of the business in legal work and collections in the budget. So now we have a load in spite of fundamental research 1.5 times higher than the optimal. And while we are waiting for new tax increases. Ignored not only my own (here in the Omsk region decided to extend the tax holidays, since the previous program allowed raising the collection of taxes from individual entrepreneurs in a simplified scheme by 10%), but also foreign experience.
And in vain. After all, there are many examples, and they are all very visible. So, during the brief administration of John F. Kennedy in the early 60's, the tax cuts in America almost instantly yielded results, and led to GDP growth of 3.74%. We still can only dream of such rates of growth. But an even more convincing result was achieved by Ronald Reagan. Leaving behind the brackets confrontation with the USSR, it is necessary to recognize: the economic model of the 40th US president was successful. The reduction of income tax by 23% led to the creation of 40 million new jobs and rapid economic growth. In general, the US, having experienced many tax reforms, has proven by experience that a tax increase corresponding to 1% of GDP leads to a decrease in actual GDP by 3%.
Through the wave of lowering tax rates, many European countries have passed in the time of the 21st century that is more understandable to us, in Brazil in 2015 the tax on personnel was abolished altogether, and this positively affected the business activity. In addition, a decrease in the financial burden leads to an increase in the flow of foreign investment in the country. And the Ministry of Finance denies all this, just as the sacred Inquisition denied dissent as heresy during the Middle Ages.
The logic of the upcoming tax maneuver is only one - indirect taxes are easier to collect. From the payment of personal income tax and social charges somehow you can evade, avoiding the official registration of employees, but VAT will be paid regularly by consumers. Yes, for some short time, the state, maybe, will remain in the black. But only until the moment when the negative influence of innovations begins to affect.
Hypocrisy with which the government works is the main scourge of our economy. At first publicly declaring the restraint of taxes, and as a result, taxes to the powerful of this world are forgiven (and even taxes can be compensated from 2014), and ordinary people receive an increase in increase. Such here is just "Senor Tomato", who introduced a tax on the air, having time to simultaneously be outraged by the fact that people have become "expensive to breathe". Call black black, and white black, of course, convenient. And the main thing is that you do not need to show any special efforts: the main thing is that the treasury is full, and the people ... somehow, yes, they will feed.
But this can not last long - the economy will not develop, people will not live better. In general, it's too much to breathe. Sooner or later the Ministry of Finance will have to develop a program of tax cuts without any passing freaks. But only if the current minister remains deaf to the world - to the people, business, and even the president, then a completely different person will carry out reforms. Everyone remembers that the lord Tomad finally ended poorly.