A complete stop of transport links with the occupied territories of the Donbass will entail certain economic problems, but it will not have a serious impact on the hryvnia exchange rate, believes Alexander Parashchiy, head of the analytical department of Concorde Capital.
The opinion of the analyst leads in his article for ZN. UA Julia Samayeva. From his point of view, there are no reasons for pressure on the hryvnia in this situation.
"The hryvnia in ORLO, it seems, has not gone for a long time. We actually already import products from there and deduce there currency. Even if there is someone paying salaries of hryvnia, it still comes back instantly, because no one there is needed. The official trade balance will change, most likely, but the rate in the exchangers - no, "- said the specialist.
According to his estimate, the potential losses of Ukraine's export revenues as a result of the blockade will amount to $ 1.5 billion.
"There is an opinion that if we reduce exports, it is a disaster. Indeed, the hryvnia usually weakens, because the deficit of the currency is growing, that is, we deduce it more than we start. But it's not just about export / import, but also about financial transactions, debts and capital. And if we look historically, the greatest outflow of currency took place just in the best years, when exports were at their peak, as were the prices for steel and ore, "he concluded..
As Samayeva points out, most analysts estimate the losses from export earnings as a result of the complete blockade of ORDLO at $ 1.5-2 billion. At the same time, foreign currency earnings from metallurgical enterprises of ORDLO, according to the NBU, are only 3%.
Recall, on March 15, the NSDC during an emergency meeting decided to suspend the movement of goods across the collision line in the Donbass. The decision was made on the same day by the decree of the President of Ukraine.
Earlier, Finance Minister Alexander Danilyuk said that Ukraine's losses from the transport blockade of the occupied territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions could reach 2% of GDP.
Read more about the economic consequences of the transport blockade of ORDLO and in the article "Mirror of the Week" by Yulia Samayeva "We merge". Ukraine".