On January 23, the NBU expectedly raised the discount rate from 13.5 to 14.5%. This decision is dictated, firstly, by the growth of inflationary pressure from demand, and inflation at the end of the year was 12%. Basic inflation, which statistically displays fundamental price pressure, has reached 10.7% by the end of the year. First of all, this was a consequence of an increase in electricity costs and salaries growth. The increase in prices for services was especially accelerated, at the end of the year it amounted to 12.5%. A significant contribution to the acceleration of inflation is made by the gradual devaluation of the hryvnia. So, in 2024, the hryvnia devalled relative to the US dollar by 10.5%. And the imported component in the general consumer basket has increased significantly during the war, that is, the influence of the growth of imported prices on overall inflation intensified.

Secondly, the decision of the NBU to increase the rate is aimed at helping to restrain the demand for foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. So, in the first 25 days of the year, the NBU sold more than 2.8 billion dollars.

Thirdly, the NBU raised the discount rate due to the need to restrain the inflationary expectations of the population. From international experience it is known that when inflation crosses a two -digit mark, inflationary expectations begin to intensify with acceleration, which in turn pushes up inflation, that is, inflation begins to self -enlarged. Therefore, central banks always closely monitor the dynamics of inflationary expectations and try to keep them under control.

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Of course, the increase in the cost of the national currency due to growth in the discount rate has some negative effects, in particular, an increase in the cost of loans for business and the population. But the regulator is primarily trying to hold macroeconomic stability, which is the priority purpose of the National Bank.

At the same time, according to the NBU, the increase in the discount rate to 14.5% per annum will not significantly restrain lending. This assessment is based on the fact that, firstly, a decrease in the discount rate by 12 p. from July 2023 to June 2024 and the implementation of the strategy for lending development provided a significant impetus in the growth of credit activity. And, secondly, the competition between banks for high-quality borrowers, which will also stimulate the credit process intensified. So, according to the operational data of the NBU, in 2024, a clean business portfolio of business grew by 21%, and the population by almost 40%. Lending is also actively increasing to restore energy capacities. Since June 2024, the total financed generation capacity for loans issued to business exceeds 470 MW.

Payment balance, international reserves, exchange rate.

Both from the beginning of the war, as a whole, and in 2024, Ukraine had a significant deficit of the current account of payment balance, mainly due to significant excess of imports over export. On the other hand, the financial assistance of union countries and international organizations led to a large surplus of the financial account of payment balance. Last year, Ukraine received significant financial support from abroad, about 42 billion dollars. Thus, international currency reserves over 2024 remained at a safe level and increased by 8%per year, and their level amounted to $ 43.8 billion. , or 5.5 months of future imports.

Over the past year, in the foreign exchange market, the demand for the purchase of foreign currency remained high, it was formed by both importers and population. The main part of the NBU interventions is to finance imports. A smaller part of demand is formed for the purchase of currency by the population to diversify their own savings. After in 2023 the NBU moved from the regime of a fixed course to a manager-payer, the hryvnia acquired a stable trend for gradual devaluation (see. rice.

The National Bank all the time is trying to withstand the balance between the deduction of the hryvnia course from significant fluctuations and maintaining the level of reserves at a safe level. Therefore, the NBU supports the trend for the slow devaluation of the course, folding in the foreign exchange market, not only because of the desire not to spend too much currency on the intervention, but also because if you hold the course relatively stable to the dollar, then with inflation in Ukraine, significantly higher. The consequence of this will be the loss of price competitiveness for both exporters and the economy as a whole.

Currency liberalization.

The component of the course and foreign exchange policy of the National Bank is currency liberalization - the process of gradual elimination or weakening of restrictions on operations with foreign currency.

With the outbreak of full -scale war, the NBU introduced a number of hard restrictions in the foreign exchange market, recorded the course and significantly raised the accounting rate. At that time, this was the only correct solution that helped prevent panic, outflow of capital and stabilized the situation on the hryvnia and foreign exchange markets. But such strict restrictions gradually began to strangle the economy: the real hryvnia course became more and more overestimated, which undermined the competitiveness of the economy, and currency restrictions prevented the rapid supplies of imported goods, including military purposes.

Therefore, the National Bank returned to the gradual weakening of the restrictions on foreign exchange operations earlier. In October 2023, it was announced the transition from the hryvnia binding regime to the dollar to the controlled flexibility of the hryvnia, which meant the determination of the official hryvnia exchange rate on the results of trading on the interbank with the participation of the NBU. After that, the National Bank began partially or completely cancel certain restrictions on the foreign exchange market.

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At the first stage, measures are provided to minimize the multiplicity of exchange rates, increase business capabilities for trade operations and promote new foreign investment in Ukraine. Further, the liberalization of trade financing and changes in the management of foreign exchange risks in the banking system are supposed. For a more distant perspective, it is also planned to mitigate the restrictions on translations and simplify investing abroad. This strategy involves at the final stage the transition to the greater flexibility of the exchange rate and a return to inflationary targeting. The balanced implementation of such a strategy can push a significant acceleration of economic growth and is the way to integrate into the European financial system.

On the other hand, the risks of increasing demand for foreign currency and growth of the outflow of capital outside Ukraine are strengthened.

Therefore, it is very important that the National Bank in parallel with the softening of currency restrictions creates a reliable system of effective fuses against such risks. In this process, transparency and equality of the action of new regulations for all business entities are important in this process. It is also very necessary to maintain the opportunity for the NBU to quickly respond to force majeure situations in the foreign exchange market and in the financial sector as a whole, to the risks of macro-financial destabilization. As for all actions in the process of currency liberalization, the National Bank must further constantly communicate with the market participants and the company. This will maintain trust in both the NBU and the hryvnia and the banking system as a whole.

Forecasts and communications of the National Bank.

Given the difficulty of forecasting the macroeconomic development of Ukraine, even for the short term, almost the main thing in this process is the correct assessment of assumptions about the size and weight of factors of influence on forecast indicators that will act on the forecast horizon. Most of them are outside the framework of monetary and regulatory policy tools, that is, it does not depend on the actions of the National Bank. Among the main factors, the unpredictability of the consequences of hostilities and missile attacks on industrial and energy infrastructure, as well as the size and regularity of military and financial assistance to friendly countries and international organizations. Therefore, the most likely assumptions about the risks and the implementation of certain factors are decisive when predicting macroeconomic development.

And although the assessments and forecasts of the National Bank had deviations from actual values \u200b\u200b(see. table. ), they were within the framework of the parameters of consensus prognosis among other specialists and institutions, both domestic and foreign, which are engaged in forecasts of macroeconomic parameters of Ukraine.

. Main indicators*.

Indicator.

2024.

2025.

2026.

2027.

Real GDP, change in %.

3.4 (4.0).

3.6 (4.3).

4.0 (4.6).

4.2.

IPC, change in %**.

12.0 (9.7).

8.4 (6.9).

5.0 (5.0).

5.0.

Basic IPC, change in %**.

10.7 (9.1).

7.8 (5.7).

3.1 (3.1).

3.2.

Current account balance, billion dollars.

-14.6 (-16.3).

2.6 *** (-27.9).

-28.3 (-28.4).

-27.9.

International reserves,.

billion dollars.

43.8 (43.6).

40.5 (41.0).

38.5 (34.7).

40.2.

*In brackets - a preliminary forecast of the NBU (inflation report, October 2024).

** at the end of the period (December by December of the previous year).

*** Free loans from G7 are taken into account. .

Of course, when extending the regime of flexible course formation and mitigation of currency restrictions, an additional risk of deterioration of inflation and course expectations of the population and businesses is also intensified. Therefore, the ads of expectations in society is decided only with the help of objective and regular communications of the Central Bank with the company, expert environment and business. Objective and regular communication will also give the right guidelines to the population and business in the implementation of their own financial decisions. And further improvement of the NBU communications system is one of the main tasks in the framework of monetary policy and changes in foreign exchange regulation.

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