The richer the country.

Germany, Austria, Switzerland - these countries are united by the fact that only about 50% of the indigenous people have their own housing. In particular, in fabulously rich Switzerland - only about 42%. In Eastern Europe, from 80% (in Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic) to 90–96% (in Romania, Hungary, Lithuania) of citizens have their own housing. These are the Eurostat data.

In relatively poor China, Nepal, India, over 80% of the population are homeowners. In the US, only about 65%.

In Ukraine, according to the national confederation of builders, 86% of citizens own a small, large or even several apartments. But others need to live somewhere.

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Unlimited Demand.

Tens of thousands of multi-apartment and private houses destroyed by the aggressor and not subject to restoration in Ukraine. The country's housing stock suffered losses worth many tens of billions of dollars. At least several hundred thousand families need housing.

Accordingly, the demand for housing is not lagging behind..

But at the same time:.

the number of new buildings put into operation has decreased by at least half;

the number of new foundations for future residential complexes has approximately halved.

That is, in the coming years, Ukraine expects a huge shortage of square meters..

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lack of money.

Now, over the past year, we have significantly reduced the dollar equivalent of GDP - from a record $200 billion. up to 159 billion (almost 21%), of course, in conditions of an undervalued official dollar exchange rate. At the same time, the final reduction in the economy in real terms is 29%.

The consequences were not long in coming: increased inflation (almost 27% in 2022), rising unemployment (according to the NBU, 21%), a decrease in real incomes adjusted for price growth by 16% (also NBU data) and only formally nominal.

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The current level of buying and selling apartments is only a third of the pre-war period. There are many reasons for this state of affairs, but the real cause of the catastrophe in the housing market is the banal financial insolvency of the population..

In other words, the pockets of potential buyers are half empty.. Therefore, the rental market is becoming a determining factor in the real estate market and will remain so at least in the coming years..

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Kyiv: hryvnia pre-war value.

At the beginning of last year in Ukraine (when we still didn’t understand whether tomorrow would come at all), apartments on the rental market were often given away to the actual “watchmen” of the property with payment only for a communal apartment. But from the fall of 2022 to the present day, the market is recovering..

So, if in Kyiv at the beginning of last autumn, options for one-room apartments in very good condition (for 4-5 thousand. UAH / month) was enough, but now for such money they offer only a room. And the fact that yesterday it was five, today it is already eight. The minimum cost of renting one-room apartments starts from 7-8 thousand. UAH.

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Here, for example, is the dynamics of renting a one-room apartment in a prestigious new residential complex near the Slavutych metro station. Before the war, this good view apartment was rented out for 14,000 rubles without much interruption.. UAH.

Spring 2022 - move out of the previous tenants and a simple apartment until August. From August until the end of last year, the apartment was rented at a price of 8 thousand. UAH per month. The beginning of 2023 and now - 12.5 thousand. UAH.

This situation reflects the general state of the residential rental market.. That is, today the hryvnia cost of renting apartments in the capital is quite a bit below the pre-war level. But the currency level is unattainable in all market segments. The currency cost of renting Kyiv apartments, even without a time machine, actually returned 20 years ago - in 2003.

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Lviv: currency pre-war value.

A slightly different picture on the Lviv rental market. It is well known that a year ago, rental apartments were sold here like hot cakes.. Even the price was not in the first place then.

Now the situation has changed dramatically. There are noticeably fewer rent seekers than owners trying to add their apartment. Potential tenants immediately sensed a favorable situation and meticulously sort out the options, successfully bargaining.

At the same time, in general, the rental price bar in Lviv, unlike in Kyiv, has practically returned not to the hryvnia, but to the pre-war currency value.. But this situation has a downside - right now, many apartments in Lviv are unclaimed, because the internally displaced tenants have returned to their homes in other cities that have become much calmer for living.

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In addition, many internally displaced persons, like residents of the Lviv region, left for Europe. Without a job, you won’t be able to get rent for a long time, and with earnings in Ukraine now it’s sparse.

However, the residents of Lviv, who still managed to rent out housing, receive a very decent reward for their asset.. At the same time, Lviv tenants can be segmented into five categories. The first is those who are looking for any housing at a price of 8-12 thousand. UAH/month. Most of them, given the level of wages and incomes.

The second category is much smaller. We are talking about apartment seekers, usually in new buildings, in good areas and with good repair. A wallet in this category allows you to search for rental housing for $450-500. /month. And since there are not so many decent housing in this price category, such apartments do not linger on the market..

The third category of Lviv tenants is relatively small - these are consumers of apartments for 650-850 dollars. /month. Among the applicants for such housing, in particular, are foreigners, representatives of international public and government organizations who came to Lviv to coordinate assistance to our country.

The fourth category - apartment seekers at a price of 1 thousand. Doll. It was not difficult to find such housing before the war.. A significant proportion of the city's IT community used to afford just such a budget. Now the situation has changed dramatically, apartments with such a rental price very often hang in the offer for a long time.

And the last, fifth, conditional category. She has always been and is now.. Apartments in the budget of 1200-2300 dollars. /month also looking for.

An apartment in a new building in the city center with an area of \u200b\u200b135 sq.. m with two parking spaces and high-tech renovation for just $2,300. Tenants are representatives of the top management of one of the private corporations. As you can see, money in Ukraine continues to spin, however, only in the pockets of a very limited category of citizens..

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Price perspective.

Thus, compared to last year, Kyiv will gradually grow in price, while Lviv, on the contrary, will bounce back after speculative rental prices in 2022.

Contracts in both markets are now sparse. But this situation only signals a traditional summer shutdown, which will not last long.. Already in August, potential tenants should be determined:.

where will the new student live;

where will the children go to school;

Do I need to return from abroad to my native land?;

in the end, where is it more comfortable, safer and more financially profitable to spend the winter.

The most attractive options will be swept off the shelves in a month or two. Whoever misses the moment will live in worse conditions, in an unsuccessful location and pay more.

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Investment lease.

Just one example. In the Austrian capital of Vienna, in a good green central area, two almost identical houses can stand side by side.. In one, a 100-meter three-room apartment with underground parking will cost 2,500–3,500 euros / month on the rental market. In another (built by a powerful private company purposefully for the rental business) an apartment of the same size and quality with the same parking space - about 1000 euros / month.

Do not be surprised. Such examples of the Austrian rental business are normal..

It's like in ordinary trade:

someone squeezes the maximum profit from a single service or the sale of a piece of goods, while a civilized network makes money on turnover, which is often much more profitable.. Moreover, the share of rental housing in Ukraine will only grow, because the market for the sale of apartments will never be the same.

The rental rules will slowly but irreversibly move from the stage of “chaos under the counter” into the mainstream of civilized rental relations between the two parties..

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