The National Bank named four risks that could slow the decline in inflation in 2018. Firstly, this is the amount of expenditures envisaged in the adopted state budget for 2018, which was significantly higher than the National Bank's forecast in October. "There is also a risk of a more significant increase in social standards, which can affect both consumer demand on the part of the population and the cost of goods and services," the NBU reported.. Secondly, the risks of delaying the next credit tranche under the program of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.

The third factor is a rise in the price of raw food products, which can have a significant impact on prices for products with a high degree of processing, as it was in the second half of 2017. "The growth of the world economy may be more significant than previously expected. This can stimulate further labor migration and, accordingly, lead to higher wages, "the fourth risk factor in the NBU. Precisely because of these factors, the inflationary expectations of business and the population have deteriorated in recent months.

Original article: Inflation threatens four major risks - the NBU.