The planned increase in freight tariffs of Ukrzaliznytsia by 30% could lead not only to the loss of part of the carrier’s cargo base, but also to the accelerated destruction of highways, which are already experiencing an acute lack of funding.

This was stated by the Chairman of the Federation of Transport Employers of Ukraine, the First Minister of Transport of Ukraine Orest Klympush.

According to him, increasing tariffs will make rail transportation less competitive, which is why a significant part of cargo will switch to road transport. “Ukraine risks simultaneously losing both the cargo base of Ukrzaliznytsia and its own road network,” he says.

Klympush noted that the road industry is already in critical condition. According to estimates by the State Reconstruction Agency, at least 51 billion UAH are needed for proper maintenance and repair of roads in 2026, while in fact only about 4.6 billion UAH are provided. Even with an additional UAH 3 billion from the reserve fund, the need remains financed by less than 10%.

At the same time, almost 38% of Ukrainian bridges are in a limited serviceable or emergency condition, and road services this year were only able to carry out pothole repairs.

At the same time, increasing tariffs may accelerate the outflow of cargo from the railways - according to experts, Ukrzaliznytsia risks losing about 27 million tons of cargo per year, which will mainly transfer to roads.

“Every truck moving from railroad to highway accelerates the destruction of the road surface many times over, especially when the axles are overloaded,” he noted..

According to Klympush, the economic effect of raising tariffs may also be negative - because due to the reduction in transportation, Ukrzaliznytsia will receive significantly less additional income than expected. While the Ukrainian economy risks losing about 100 billion UAH of GDP, and the state budget – 36 billion UAH of tax revenues.

The main reason for the carrier’s financial problems is not the cargo segment, which remained profitable in previous years, but chronic losses in passenger transportation, the expert noted. And he emphasized that instead of a sharp increase in tariffs, it is necessary to finance socially important passenger transportation from the state budget, optimize the costs of Ukrzaliznytsia itself and strengthen weight control on the roads.

“Increasing tariffs above the inflation rate in a war will not save the railway, but it could deal a blow to the roads, industry and economy of the country,” he concluded.