In this exchange, the US and Russia have directly opposite goals. But Moscow, it seems, has made concessions to Washington, based on the main principle of communication with Trump: do not quarrel and play for time.

The following is the text in the original language. Formally, this exchange of 5 for 5 in which took the fate of 7 countries. Ale, as we speak about the main figures, we can say the “lead” hero for the Poles and two for Moscow.

The exchange of the Polish Belarusian Pochobut for the Russian archaeologist Butyagin, who was engaged in excavations in Crimea, and for the high-ranking Moldavian security official Balan, who was spying on the backdrop of Russia - a complex combination, which managed to turn the first hand for everything,. The Poles are already talking to the Americans. However, this exchange would be impossible without the Russians, who, in this particular situation, are directly related to the Americans..

The goal of the United States, besides the humanitarian one, is similar to the extended idea of \u200b\u200bentering the potash market of Belarus (which Moscow itself is categorically against). Belarus can export goods through several countries: Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine and Poland. It looks like the United States is starting a campaign to unblock the Polish, and in the future, perhaps the Lithuanian cordons. Go naked, start the game. Neither in Washington, nor in Warsaw, nor in Vilnius do they particularly trust Lukashenka. And before I try to play in a serious game, I try the tactics of other victories.

In Moscow, they understand the US strategy perfectly well, and they have taken advantage of this game, losing in return two symbolic victories: Balan and Butyagin. The Poles also took away what they wanted: Particularly focused on Tusk. In this case, Russians should ensure that the potassium negotiations do not go beyond the exchange of flights? diseases and did not cross into the eunomic area without the knowledge of the Russians.

Sorry for Lukashenka, he simply couldn’t help but be useful in this exchange under the pressure of Moscow and Washington. All of Lukashenko’s efforts to show that he is afraid of getting closer to Trump and that he cares about the need to stretch the clock as much as possible and work hard to get closer to Washington (the DPRK is a clear example of this).

Simply put, Lukashenko is more afraid of Putin than Trump, and he will try to loop for as long as possible to prevent Americans from entering his potash market. And it will be useful at the moment when the Russians are among them. But this may happen at that moment, if (more precisely) the Russian Federation and Washington expand the field for negotiations, including to Belarus.

There are a lot of people who have started to say that this exchange is not a shock to Ukraine. That's definitely not true. Ukraine has neither won nor lost anything here. We are deprived of everything. We already have to work through this exchange and through this whole USA? Not yet. The unblocking of the Polish cordon is still far away. Ale gras has already begun. And we need to clearly define our place in this upcoming world, especially with regard to those who in the Ukraine-Russia-USA negotiations may? the Belarusian factor will appear.