Orban has already lost - but the problem has not gone away

Today, 16:32 | Peace 
фото с Обозреватель

Hungary woke up to a new political reality. Without loud preludes and without gradual transition - immediately after a system breakdown. Parliamentary elections ended an era that lasted more than a decade and a half. The Tisza party, led by Peter Madyar, did not just win - it received a constitutional majority, gathering more than two-thirds of parliament. This is not a rotation of elites - this is the dismantling of a political structure.

The following is the text in the original language. 78% turnout was not a statistic, but the key to this result. Locals, youth, apolitical earlier elections - the mustache of the stench became the primary factor. There, the opposition was powdered by the trees, in fact, it was in power, from which it once concentrated and turned the protest against the Kerovan force. This consolidation itself damaged the institutional advantage of Fidesz..

Although Orban’s defeat does not mean an automatic victory for another model.

Constitutional majesty is not just a tool for change, but a test of maturity. It reveals the possibility of quickly rewriting the rules: changing the judicial system, re-engaging the prosecutor’s office, dismantling the administrative verticals that inevitably fell under one political force. Madyar’s team is already talking about a large-scale audit and personnel rotation. And this means that the first months of the new government will not be about foreign policy - they will be about control.

In fact, Ugorshchina is entering a phase of internal re-invention. And the main reason is to blame here: the system, which overcame the old model, is taking away the very tools that allowed it to be used. Nutrition is not about changing politics - nutrition is about changing logic.

In the outer world there is a need for revolution. More correction. The new order aims to turn Ugorshchyna into the status of a transferred partner, restore confidence, unfreeze finances and normalize relations with key European centers. The first signals - heading towards Brussels, Poland, Austria - look like an attempt to return to the European mainstream.

Otherwise, strategic exchanges will be forfeited.

Energy reserves, economic connections with Skhod, internal political structure - all form a framework, in which the new government will be in power. Madyar seems pragmatic, but does not demonstrate a readiness to change the basic model. This means that Ugorshchina will continue to balance - just less aggressively and without permanent confrontation.

For Ukraine, this is not a breakthrough, but a possibility.

Knows the main personal training for double-sided drains. But we don’t know the reasons for the tension: energy, approaches to war, positions on European integration, internal political sentiments in the Ugorsk region itself. In a short-line perspective, this means less confrontation and more streamlined rhetoric. The Ukrainian issue ceases to be an instrument of domestic policy.

What is enough to start a dialogue?.

In mid-Ostronia, the key factor is the economy. A new order to capitalize on access to European resources and business activation. Ukraine in this logic is not a political food, but a market. Infrastructure, supply chain, logistics - through these, a steady stream of re-incentivization of supplies can be achieved directly..

Ale and here - without illusions. The caution, as Peter Madyar demonstrates, is not a temporary tactic, but a reflection of the real boundaries that govern Ugric politics. It’s not just about rhetoric, but about fundamental speeches: the negotiation track from Russia, the nutrition of military support for Ukraine, the pace and format of its integration into European structures. In this case, the new power of each person is difficult to balance between external conditions and internal supply..

Over time, the Ugric marriage was formed as rather pragmatic and attentive to conflict politics. A significant part of the voters supported the changes not for the sake of a foreign political turnaround, but for the sake of internal re-engagement - the economy, institutions, governance. This automatically limits the maneuver of the new government: sharp terms of the name can be adopted as a way out of the head mandate taken away at the elections.

The economic factor is additionally superimposed. Energy reserves and agreed contracts form a situation in which politically motivated decisions are likely to set their price - and this price is determined not by political ratings, but by the stability of the economy. The same is true: the Ugric model of the remaining rocks was on the diversification of partnerships, and it is apparently impossible to follow this logic.

The new order itself will not be “pro-Ukrainian” in the classical sense. He will be pro-Ugric - pragmatic, careful and selective in decisions. Support for Ukraine, as it will be argued, is not as a political declaration, but as an element of a larger broader strategy - where it does not respect domestic interests and does not create over-world risks.

Now it is important to understand: once you change the position of Budapest, the effect will not be direct and immediate. The European Union has long ceased to be a system where one country determines the rules of the world. There are enough actors who can block or enforce decisions - for powerful reasons not related to the Ugorshchina. Therefore, the potential “improvement” of the Ugric position does not mean an automatic breakthrough for Ukraine on the level of the EU.

In a long-term perspective, the logic of development is deprived of a two-vector.

The first scenario is the gradual turn of the Ugric region into the European political mainstream. Not through sudden reversals, but through a gradual normalization of fluids, renewal of trust and integration into common processes. This type of communication with Ukraine is also transforming - they are becoming less politicized, more pragmatic and oriented towards specific projects.

Another scenario is a partial reinvention of the old model. Not in its radical form, but in the logic of balancing between Entry and Exit, saving key deposits and being careful in strategic nutrition. It may be that structural factors—energy, economics, domestic political sentiment—will be stronger for political will before change.

And it is important that the two scenarios are not mutually exclusive. The Ugorshchina could instantly collapse into the backdrop of Europe and retain elements of the old policy. This very “hybridity” will determine its course in the near future.

Therefore, this choice is the true end of the era. Unless the political logic that created it is completed. The new government took away the tools for change, but did not take away complete freedom of action. And this is a headache, because all the following steps are significant.

For Ukraine, this means a simple, but important point: the possibility of re-engaging the drains is clear, but it will not be realized on its own. Political warming is just the starting point. The real result will only appear if it is supported by the economy - major projects, investments, participation of the Ukrainian business in the city.

It is there - in practical interaction, and not in political signals - that it appears that the changes that are actually significant.

Источник: Обозреватель