The macroeconomic situation in Ukraine worsens. Last year, the effect of restoring the economy after the difficult 2022th and, as a result, the low comparison base, which in 2023, provided record indicators of economic growth was completely exhausted. Thus, the Ukrainian economy has reached the “ceiling” of growth and is not capable of going out into the “plus” without additional positive structural factors. According to the results of the first half of the year of 2025, it can be stated that some of the important Ukrainian macro indicators went down.

This is stated in the analytics GMK Center.

" The growth of these problems has led to a deterioration in the economic situation: the first indicators of the work of the Ukrainian economy since the beginning of the year show the failure of the most important economic indicators, ”the center said.

So, since the beginning of the year, industrial production has fallen by 6.1% g. /G. , the volume of construction work performed - by 11% g. /G. This happened due to a significant decline in housing (-7.4% g. /G. ) and engineering (-26.6% g. /G. ) construction, indicated in analytics.

" As a result - in the first quarter of 2025, the amount of Ukrainian exports in monetary terms decreased by 7.4% g. /G. or $ 786 million - up to $ 9.9 billion, ”analysts say.

The center emphasizes: if incorrect internal managerial decisions or inaction of the authorities in terms of supporting the development of the economy are added to existing negative factors, then economic activity will decrease in the future.

" Without a strong industrial basis, Ukraine will not be able to recover after the end of the war even to the pre-war level of socio-economic development. Therefore, Ukraine needs systemic support for basic industries. However, now there are no prerequisites for such growth. Moreover, in case of reducing the dynamics of GDP against the background of increasing inflation, Ukraine may threaten stagflation, from which it will be extremely problematic to break out in war conditions. Also, there is still no decision to delay the action of the European CBAM for Ukraine, which threatens to bring down the export of a number of basic sectors of the Ukrainian economy (energy, metallurgy, cement industry), ”the center noted in the center.

As you know, last year metallurgy brought Ukraine 15.2% of export income ($ 6.4 billion). Iron ore ($ 2.8 billion) and steel ($ 2.4 billion) remained key goods. GMK also provided 18.3% of total capital investments in Ukrainian industry in 2024. And the largest metallurgical companies of the industry (Metinvest, Arselormittal Kryvyi Rih, Interpipe, Dch Steel, Ferrexpo) in total paid almost a billion dollars of tax payments.