In the year of its centenary, the Republic of Turkey is experiencing one of the most dramatic periods in history..

Its manifestation was the presidential and parliamentary elections held over the weekend: not only the ambitions of politicians claiming the post of head of state were at stake. The current presidential election decides which path the country will take: whether it will return to democratic lines or continue to follow the path of autocracy, whether it will become a presidential or parliamentary republic, whether it will be Islamist or secular, whether it will end up with a traditional monetary policy or an unorthodox monetary policy.?

The main contenders for the post of head of state were the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the candidate from the opposition bloc of six parties, the leader of the Republican People's Party, Kemal K?l?cdaroglu. But the vote did not reveal the winner. With a high turnout of almost 88.2%, none of the candidates passed the 50% threshold: Erdogan received 49.51% of the vote, and K?l?cdaroglu 44.88%.

Although opinion polls showed that K?l?cdaroglu had more chances to win in the first round, for Erdogan the result still looks like a failure, since he sought to win on May 14: the second round, which will be held on May 28, carries additional threats, risks, and difficulties.. The pill is not sweetened by the fact that parliament remains under Erdogan's control: the ruling People's Alliance (which includes Erdogan's Justice and Development Party) has 321 seats out of 600, the National Alliance K?l?cdaroglu has 213, and the pro-Kurdish Alliance of Labor and.

Both Erdogan's opponents, who hoped to win in the first round, and investors who fear a deepening economic crisis were disappointed with the results of the vote: after the results were announced, the Turkish stock market fell by 6.7%.

Even before the announcement of the official results, the opposition announced manipulations in the vote count. In turn, OSCE observers noted that the Supreme Electoral Council demonstrated a lack of transparency in its approach to Sunday's elections, and biased coverage of the elections in state media was a matter of concern.. However, there are no mass protests on the street, no barricades and no one is throwing Molotov cocktails.. Everyone is getting ready for the second round..

Despite the fact that K?l?cdaroglu showed worse results than the polls gave him, he has a chance to win. It's not just about the economic crisis, inflation, the actions of the authorities during the recent earthquake. Many Turks are simply tired of the twenty-year rule of the “sultan”, of his anti-Western rhetoric and conservatism.

But will Erdogan let his opponent take this chance

Before the first round, the government managed to partially neutralize the political consequences of the earthquake by providing financial assistance to the victims. The salaries of civil servants were also increased. Erdogan actively turned to anti-Western rhetoric, accusing the US and the West of interfering in the elections, and raised his rating by launching the first domestic electric car, opening the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, seeking a deferral of payments for Russian gas. Accusations against K?l?cdaroglu of collaborating with PKK terrorists played a role.

Now Erdogan will have to offer voters something else to keep his electorate (and these are people who share conservative and nationalist views) and at the same time win over supporters of the far-right populist Ogan. The task of his headquarters is also to ensure that the voters of K?l?cdaroglu lose faith in the victory of their candidate and do not go to the second round.. If Erdogan succeeds, he will remain on the powerful Olympus for years.

In this situation, for Erdogan, as well as for Kilicdaroglu, it is important how those 5.3% of voters who voted for the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, will vote in the second round.. He received such numerous support, including due to the fact that he spoke about the need to return Syrian and other refugees home: there are about five million of them in Turkey and they have long caused discontent among the local population.. Therefore, experts argue that both contenders for the presidency will actively play the refugee card.. At the same time, Ogan himself declares that he is ready to support Erdogan or K?l?cdaroglu in the second round in exchange for a promise to deal with certain problems..

Erdogan can go to great lengths to win. Although he declares that in case of defeat in the elections he is ready to leave the presidency and leave power democratically, the current head of state does not intend to give up. And he assures of his victory, promising to increase the lead over his opponent in the second round.. But its possibilities are limited, since legitimacy is important for the “sultan”, and in such a situation it is impossible to endlessly use the administrative resource, rigging the results on a large scale.

If the thirst for power outweighs, then in the event of a loss in the second round, Erdogan may well follow the path of Trump and bring his supporters to the street. Such a scenario plays into the hands of those officials and billionaires who cash in on government orders and are afraid of losing power and money with the departure of the current president.. However, Erdogan must also take into account the fact that the desire to win at any cost will lead to new protests on Taksim Square and, it is possible, to the resistance of the military, who so far remain loyal to the incumbent president..

Today it is difficult to say who will be the winner of the presidential race..

But Erdogan's victory in the second round will certainly bring relief in Russia, because under him Ankara's policy towards Moscow will remain the same. But K?l?cdaroglu made several statements during the election campaign that could not but alarm Moscow.. Thus, the opposition candidate promised to make relations with the United States more balanced and return to negotiations on the country's accession to the EU.. Declared that he would give priority to relations with the West, and not with the Kremlin. Finally, he accused Russia of interfering in the Turkish elections and demanded to "

At the same time, K?l?cdaroglu also said that he wants good relations with Russia and intends to develop them, maintaining a balance between the West and Moscow..

There is no doubt that if Erdogan's opponent takes the presidency, then Sweden's path to NATO will be much less obstacles.. The victory of the opposition candidate will be important for democracy in Turkey and the world. But it is unlikely that K?l?cdaroglu, although pro-Western, if elected, would radically change Ankara's policy towards Moscow and join Western sanctions against Russia..

The truth is that if Erdogan and K?l?cdaroglu take different positions towards the West, then towards Russia they adhere to a common approach: given the state of the Turkish economy, none of the politicians can afford a confrontation with Russia, which is important for Turkey as a sales market. Russian tourists still have a rest in Antalya, and Turkey earns on gray imports to the Russian Federation.

If a new president appears in Turkey, Ankara will maintain cooperation with Kiev. Thus, K?l?cdaroglu approved Erdogan’s political decisions during the Russian-Ukrainian war and his mediation in the “grain deal”. But the transition period in power may drag on for a couple of years, which can lead to problems in Ankara's development of strategic decisions..

If Erdogan wins, he will continue to pursue the policy that Ukraine has faced for the past twenty years.. Maneuvering between Russia and the West, Kiev and Moscow, the "

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