Thanks to the rapid recovery of the energy system and, according to the NBU, soft fiscal policy, the forecast for economic growth in 2023 has been improved from 0. 3% to 2. 0%. This is discussed in the April inflation report of the National Bank..

“The rapid reduction of the electricity deficit, the improvement of the terms of trade and the increase in budget spending have improved the estimate of real GDP growth in 2023 to 2. 0%,” says the report.

Stronger GDP growth expected next year.

“Reducing security risks from next year will help accelerate economic growth – up to 4. 3% in 2024 and up to 6. 4% in 2025. Thus, the de-occupation of the territories and the full opening of the Black Sea ports will gradually increase industrial production and increase crops.. In addition, domestic demand is expected to expand due to the return of part of the forced migrants,” the document says..

However, the NBU notes that the negative gap in GDP (apparently, with pre-war indicators) will persist throughout the forecast horizon due to the weakening of competitiveness during the war and the long-term preservation of structural imbalances caused by the war in the markets for goods and services, labor and capital, which will slow down.

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Earlier, the head of the National Bank predicted a steady decline in prices in Ukraine and named the reasons.