After the war: how to make sure that Ukraine is not forgotten

19 April 2023, 12:09 | Peace 
фото с Зеркало недели

The global transformations taking place in the world concern not only issues of security and opposition of ideologies, but also the formation of a new economic model that, without exaggeration, will determine the future of mankind. According to leading economists, cosmetic measures will no longer be able to change the blatantly uneven distribution of social wealth, stop catastrophic climate change, and provide more equitable conditions for the development of post-colonial states.. New development models are needed, because the existing ones based on classical capitalism have exhausted themselves. They no longer lead to social progress, because they are based on consumption, and therefore vicious.. And it doesn’t matter if we are talking about state, market, corruption or capitalism with Chinese characteristics.

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As it turned out, pandemics, wars and ideological differences are not obstacles for big money.. Today, two countries in the world - the United States and China share the palm in terms of the number of billionaires, many times surpassing the closest competitors from Germany or India.. At the same time, for example, in the United States, 10% of the population owns 90% of the national wealth, and this is a global trend.. The pandemic, of course, affected the size and general condition of the global money “elite”, but the fact that LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault is among the leaders of the world’s richest people, and the market value of his company has doubled since 2020, says a lot –.

There is a strange picture. The environment is deteriorating, the shortage of food, energy and water resources, the amount of garbage is increasing, but the paradigm of endless growth based on consumption does not disappear anywhere. Moreover, it is still taken as the basis of political analysis, and therefore of politics itself, and is still directly associated with population growth, which is the instrument of consumption.. The natural decline in the population, which, as it seems, could stabilize the rate of consumption of the planet's resources, is seen as almost a catastrophic factor.. The population of India is growing - and this is wonderful, the population of China or Japan is decreasing - and this is almost the path to stagnation.. An indicator of the “health” of the US economy is the number of Chinese toys bought by Americans for Christmas. So what if no one needs these gifts? Almost 80% of the US population is already obese, but you still need to eat even more, otherwise GDP will not grow. More cars produced and bought, household appliances, houses, electronics - everyone should do their part to grow the economy. Efforts to green energy and industry are worthless if OPEC+ decisions lead to panic among traders and oil prices. Summits and declarations will not help here.

An even more amazing metamorphosis is observed in connection with the increase in life expectancy, for which humanity has been fighting since the advent of homo sapiens.. As it turned out, this factor, according to economists, holds back GDP growth, that is, the development. After all, long-livers need to be paid pensions, but they are not a productive force and do not consume as much as young people who need to create and provide for their own families. Older people are conservative and prefer fax and touch phones, which still work great.. But smartphones need to be changed every year - what kind of development without the latest iPhone model? After reaching the age of 80, people change cars less often than 20-year-olds. By the way, caring for the elderly, which is not paid, but takes a lot of time, is not taken into account in GDP indicators..

At first glance, the general issues of the global economic model, which are hotly debated, are not a priority for Ukraine.. However, this is an extremely short-sighted point of view.. First, after the onset of peace, we will have no choice but to radically reform the economy, both in terms of EU membership and strengthening ties with countries located far from Europe and North America.. And for this you need to have your own vision of the future model. For the states of the so-called global South, with which it is necessary to actively interact, it is very important which path the world leaders and their allies choose. Secondly, the big politics of the new, obviously, bipolar world will be built around fierce economic competition in the face of growing global destabilizing factors - climate change, debt accumulation, rising inequality and the risk of new wars and pandemics.. In order for Ukraine not to be forgotten, one must at least understand what the discussions are about within the framework of open and closed discussions of the most pressing issues of the world order, and, ideally, be a constructive participant in them. Experts estimate that since 1960 the " in the form of cheap resources, labor, unfair trade policies. Is it any wonder that the current intensification of the geopolitical confrontation between the US + and China + is precisely with the involvement of allies from among the “southerners”? Try to convince African countries that democracy is good, if in their historical memory the current " Such resentment greatly affects their vision of the world..

A growing number of contemporary classics of capitalism and economics gurus have begun to say that the consumption-based growth model needs to be revised.. The growth and volume of GDP obviously does not give an idea that the economy, ecology and social sphere of the country are in harmony and balance. It is impossible to estimate the loss of GDP from the disappearance of several species of living organisms or slowdown in growth due to inequitable income distribution. The conclusion is clear that market economies work better when they are properly regulated, and this is not at all what the most developed countries are doing today in the form of subsidizing certain industries (as they are now in the US and China in relation to the production of chips) or restrictive trade policy (this is " Environmental factors, the rational use of natural resources, the right balance between consumption and development, fair trade relations that give small states a chance to get their place under the economic sun - this, although incomplete, is still a list of features of the new capitalism, which the best minds reflect on..

According to British analysts, the covid pandemic led to the worst recession in the last 300 years. The huge inflation observed today, the bankruptcy of the largest banks, political instability caused by the deterioration in the quality of life even in developed countries, have not yet affected the development of compromise solutions to overcome global consequences..

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Russia's war against Ukraine was the dominant factor that prevented the development of practical measures at the recent meeting of G20 finance ministers and heads of central banks in India, as the positions of the civilized world and Russia with China diverged, as they did last year in Indonesia.

The second “bone of contention” was the problem of restructuring the debts of the poorest countries. What is observed instead of constructive interaction is the political confrontation between democracies and autocracies, fragmentation of markets, protectionism and subsidies, a decrease in the role of the WTO in regulating international trade. The countries of the " Here, except that recently Japan, India and France gathered to solve the problem of the default of Sri Lanka. There are 73 such countries in the IMF monitoring, and in many of them China has “worked”.

As if there were few problems in the world economy, so China began to actively promote its renminbi currency as the world. First, Russia and China switched to the renminbi and rubles in bilateral trade, now an agreement has been reached with Brazil, negotiations are underway with Saudi Arabia, part of Korean exports to China are also paid in renminbi. Putin said he would like to switch to trade in renminbi with the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America (India refused such an offer). In a world with 160 national currencies and 22,000 cryptocurrencies, China has succeeded - today 2% of world trade is carried out in renminbi (for comparison: in dollars - 62%, in euros - 20%, in yens - 5.7%). Moscow even voiced the idea of \u200b\u200bproposing at the next BRICS summit the creation of a common currency that would have a “gold” backing and/or pegging to other rare earth metals or earth. There is no point in discussing such proposals seriously, but it may not seem so to everyone.. The ideas of "

It is absolutely impossible to exclude that for states exporting not the highest quality raw materials, the use of the renminbi in the near future will become a condition for trade with China and countries where China's position is strong. The only way to avoid such a political trap is to dramatically increase the depth of processing and improve the quality.

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Nidec CEO Shigenobu Nagamori, one of the world's leading manufacturers of electric motors and generators, was once asked if he was afraid of the emergence of competitors as a result of the company's investment in China.. He replied that he was not afraid. “Our strength is uniqueness,” he said, referring to the ability of Japanese engineers to innovate, always ahead of time and competitors.. Revealing your own uniqueness, creating conditions for its innovative protection and being ahead of the time with your thinking - this seems to be the recipe for future success.

Источник: Зеркало недели